Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During November, the Northern islands received below average rainfall and Central and Southern islands received above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 10% in the Northern and decreased to 6% in the Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 160 mm; and the Southern islands by 100 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 130 mm of rainfall in the central islands on the 6th and up to 70 mm in the southern islands during 7-9. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm in southern islands next week.       



Central and Southern islands received above average rainfall in November

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. Wind is north easterly.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th-20th  November 2017 No Rainfall.
21st  November 2017 Up to 10 mm in central islands.
22nd  November 2017 Up to 50 mm in southern islands.
23rd November 2017 Up to 30 mm in central and southern islands.
24th November 2017 Up to 50 mm in central islands
25th-26th November 2017 Up to 50 mm in a few northern islands and up to 30 mm in central islands.
27th November 2017 Up to 20 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
28th November 2017 Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 30 mm in northern islands.
29th November 2017 Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
30th November 2017 More than 140 mm in Miladhunmadulu atoll; up to 125 mm in Maalhosmadulu and Faaddhippolhu atolls and up to 50 mm in central islands.


Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In November, northern islands received up to 160 mm below average rainfall; and central and southern islands up to 240 mm above average rainfall. The central and southern islands received up to 400 mm of total rainfall; and northern islands up to 100 mm during this period. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 20, 2017:

In mid-November 2017, the tropical Pacific reflected weak La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific past the threshold of La Niña and most atmosphere variables showing patterns suggestive of weak La Niña conditions. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates weak La Niña as the most likely scenario for the remainder of Northern Hemisphere fall and for the winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook favors continuation of La Niña through winter, and carries a La Niña advisory.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring November 22, 2017: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 4 from 26-30 Nov.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 40 mm of rain is expected on December 5th in the southern islands; and up to 10 northern islands. On the 6th central islands expected to receive up to 130 mm of rainfall and southern islands up to 40 mm. Up to 70 mm of rainfall is expected in southern islands; and up to 40 mm in central islands during December 7-9.





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