Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During December, the Northern and Central islands received below average rainfall and Southern islands received above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 20% in the Northern and to 7% in the Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 150 mm; and the central islands by 100 mm in December. Also, Southern islands have a surplus of 200 mm.
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands on the 12th and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands during 7-9. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.   



Southern islands received up to 400 mm of total rainfall in December

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January, northern islands receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
20th  December 2017 No Rainfall.
21st  December 2017 Up to 20 mm in northern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.
22nd  December 2017 No Rainfall.
23rd December 2017 Up to 50 mm in central islands.
24th December 2017 Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
25th December 2017 Up to 50 mm in southern islands.
26th-27th December 2017 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
28th-29th December 2017 Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
30th December 2017 Up to 120 mm in southern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.
31st December 2017 Up to 50 mm in southern islands and up to 30 mm in central islands.


Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In December, northern islands received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and central islands up to 100 mm. Southern islands received up to 200 mm above average rainfall. The northern and central islands received up to 200 mm of total rainfall; and southern islands up to 400 mm during this period. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 19, 2017:

In mid-December 2017, the tropical Pacific reflected La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific in the range of weak to moderate La Niña and all atmosphere variables showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates weak, but not far from threshold of moderate, La Niña as the most likely scenario for the Northern Hemisphere winter, lasting into spring. The official CPC/IRI outlook favors continuation of La Niña through middle or late
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring November 22, 2017: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from 28-29 Dec and in Phase 2 from 30-Dec-7 Jan. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 10 mm of rain is expected on January 11th and up to 40 mm on the 12th in the northern islands. Up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in northern and central islands during January 13-15.





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