Friday, March 17, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During February, the whole country received climatological rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. An increase in rainfall was observed in the southern islands during the mid-weeks of February. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is climatological. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts average rainfall for Maldives until June. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Central islands received up to 150 mm rainfall in February.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th Feb 2017 Up to 30 mm in northern islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
20th Feb  2017 Up to 50 mm in northern islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
21st- 27th Feb;2017 No Rainfall.
28th Feb - 1st Mar 2017 Up to 50 mm in northern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands.
2nd Mar 2017 Up to 80 mm in northern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands.
3rd Mar 2017 Up to 80 mm in northern islands.
4th Mar 2017 Up to 120 mm in northern islands.
5th- 12th Mar 2017 No Rainfall.



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In February, the whole island received climatological rainfall. Central islands received up to ~150 mm of rainfall; and northern and southern islands atolls up to 60 mm during January.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State Mar 17, 2017:

During mid-March 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was mainly in the ENSO-neutral range, but warmer than average SST was observed in the eastern one-third of the basin. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall and winds in the central and western tropical Pacific continues to suggest a borderline La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through spring 2017, with an increasing chance for El Niño development during summer or fall. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring March 8, 2017: 

Average SST was observed around Maldives.




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 10 mm of rain is expected in southern islands on 18th and 21st of March.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in southern islands and 50% likelihood for central and northern islands during these 3 months.



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