Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, northern and central islands received above average rainfall while southern received climatological rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 300 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. An increase in rainfall was observed in the entire country during the mid-weeks of March. Rainfalls received by the northern and central islands are the highest rainfalls recorded in each region during the past 6 years. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological tendency for rainfall for Maldives until June. El Nino prediction models suggest ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week although the Southern-most islands shall can receive up to 20-40 mm/day.


Northern islands received up to 300 mm of above average rainfall in March


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
18th - 24th Mar 2017 No Rainfall.
25th Mar 2017 Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
26th Mar 2017 No Rainfall.
27th Mar 2017 Up to 20 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
28th - 31st Mar 2017 Up to 80 mm in northern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands.
1st Apr 2017 Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In March, Northern islands received up to 300 mm; and Southern islands up to 100 mm of above average rainfall while southern islands received climatological rainfall. Northern islands received up to ~400 mm of rainfall; and northern and central islands atolls up to 200 mm during this period. These are the highest recorded rainfalls in each region for this period during past 6 years.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State Mar 17, 2017:

During mid-March 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was mainly in the ENSO-neutral range, but warmer than average SST was observed in the eastern one-third of the basin. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall and winds in the central and western tropical Pacific continues to suggest a borderline La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through spring 2017, with an increasing chance for El Niño development during summer or fall. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring March 8, 2017: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 70 mm of rain is expected on April 3rd and up to 40 mm on the 4th in Central islands. During 5th-6th central and southern islands are expected to receive up to 10 mm of rainfall. Southern islands are expected to receive up to 40 mm of rainfall; and central islands up to 10 mm during 7th-9th.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in southern islands and 50% likelihood for central and northern islands during these 3 months.



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