Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, southern islands received up to 150 mm below average rainfall while some of central islands received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. During the last week of January, the rainfall in northern and central islands increased. The sea surface temperature around southern Maldives is nearly neutral to up to 0.5 0C below the seasonal average. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts above average rainfall for southern islands rainfall until April. El Nino prediction models suggest of weak La Niña conditions as the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.5 C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Southern islands received 180 mm below average rain in January.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it’s northwesterly.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th - 20th Jan 2017 No rainfall.
21st Jan  2017 Up to 15 mm in northern islands.
22nd Jan 2017 Up to 60 mm in northern islands.
23rd Jan 2017 Up to 5 mm in central islands.
24th - 25th  Jan 2017 No rainfall.
26th  Jan 2017 Up to 30 mm in central islands.
27th  Jan 2017 Up to 20 mm in central islands.
28th  Jan 2017 Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 40 mm in central islands.
29th - 30st  Jan 2017 UP to 15 mm in central islands.
31st  Jan 2017 Up to 5 mm in southern islands.



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In January, central islands received around () 120 mm of rainfall below the climatological average and southern islands received ~150 mm rainfall below the climatological average. Central islands received up to ~150 mm of rainfall; and northern islands including southern Addu and Fuvahmulah atolls up to 90 mm during January.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State Jan 19, 2017:

During mid-January 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Many of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific also remain consistent with weak La Niña conditions, although some have become only weakly so. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have continued to be weakly suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall remain suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs, now near the threshold of La Niña, is in the process of dissipating to neutral levels by February. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring January 25, 2017: 

~0.50C below average SST was observed around southern Maldives.




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 40 mm of rain is expected in southern islands on 12th of February. Up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in central and southern islands on the 13th and 14th. On 15th, up to 20 mm of rain is expected in southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern and central islands.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for February to April, there is a 40% chance that the rainfall shall be above average in the central islands. The 3-month average temperature has a 50% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in northern and central islands and 80% likelihood for southern islands during these 3 months.



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