Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2016


Monitored: The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm cumulative rainfall over the last 365 day compared to normal years. The rainfall in the Southern Islands do not show a deficit for the last year or for December aided by heavy rainfall in the last week of December. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is up to 0.5 0C above the seasonal average with lower values to the South. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts rainfall have a tendency towards near-normal tercile and seasonal temperature to the above normal tercile for January to March of 2017. For the Pacific sea surfaces models suggest weak La Niña conditions as the SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.

The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI



Monthly Climatology:

In January, northern islands receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.



Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date Rainfall
19th - 27th Dec 2016 No rainfall.
29th - 30th Dec 2016 Up to 60 mm in the entire country.
31st Dec 2016 Up to 60 mm in central and southern islands.
1st Jan 2017 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
2nd Jan 2017 No rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In December 2016, central and southern islands received up to ~150 mm of rainfall during December. Rainfall received by the northern islands is the lowest rainfall recorded in this region during the past 6 years for the month of December.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State Dec 15, 2016:

During mid-December 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Also, most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific have been consistent with weak La Niña conditions, although subseasonal atmospheric variability weakened some of them in late November. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have been suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall have also been consistent with weak La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs near the threshold of La Niña persisting through mid-winter, then weakening to cool-neutral by later winter. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring October 26, 2016: 

~0.50C above average SST was observed around the central and southern islands of Maldives


Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA CFS long-range weather prediction model predicts up to 50 mm total rainfall for Addu atoll during 5th-10th January.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for January to March, rainfall shall be climatological in the entire country. The 3-month average temperature has a 40% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in northern and central islands and 50% likelihood for southern islands during these 3 months.

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