Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2014

HIGHLIGHTS

Above average rainfall was observed in southern islands of Maldives where up to 190 mm rainfall was observed at the end of November and this is the highest rainfall observed in this year in any part of the country. The rest of the country received below average rainfall during November. Very heavy rainfall is expected in the sea west of Maldives in the next few days. Most of ENSO prediction models indicate a weak El Nino condition during December to February.

Rainfall Anomaly over Maldives in November 2014. Areas in green received above average rainfall while areas in brown received below average rainfall.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Up to 100 mm rainfall was observed in Central to Northern islands of Maldives in the first three weeks of November 2014. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected to continue during the next week in the same region as well as in the north-eastern sea of The Maldives. Despite this heavy rainfall, the precipitation received has not been enough to shrink the rainfall deficit persisted for several months.  

Image: Rainfall anomaly continues to grow in Northern islands of Maldives. The same is observed throughout the country

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Above average rainfall was observed in northern and southern islands of Maldives in September 2014. In central islands, below average rainfall was observed despite having up to 300 mm rainfall during the month. The rainfall deficit persists in the entire country even though around 300 mm of rainfall was observed in September and the first two weeks of October.  

Image: Rainfall anomaly continues to grow in Northern islands of Maldives. The same is observed throughout the country

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

The northern and central islands of the Maldives garnered their highest monthly rainfall in August for 2014. Despite this the cumulative deficit of rainfall continues to grow and currently the amount of this deficit has grown past 500 mm. In southern islands the deficit has become more significant.  

Image: Rainfall anomaly in August 2014. This shows an above average rainfall in northern and central islands and a below average rainfall in the south.

Maldives’ economy hardest hit by climate change: Asian Development Bank

By Lucy Lovell

Climate change could cause annual economic losses of over 12% of the Maldives’ GDP by the end of this century, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB)climate and economics report released today (August 19).

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Dry conditions persisted during the July in the entirety of Maldives. Lower rainfall than the previous month was observed across the country. But during the next week NOAA predicts heavy rainfall in Maldives and this prediction has been made with a high confidence. Sustained El Nino conditions are expected towards the end of this year. The sea surface temperature around the country has also risen to more than 10 C.  

Image: Rainfall anomaly in July 2014. Darker brown area show a total rainfall deficit up to 400 mm covering most of The Maldives. 

Artificial reef building offers hope as super El Niño looms

By Zaheena Rasheed

In the turquoise lagoon of Banyan Tree Vabbinfaru, Moosa Shan dove down and cleared sand from a large block of cement. There, he placed several balls of marine cement and attached broken fragments of live coral. The balls would harden within hours and provide a critical stable base for coral growth.

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Lower than average rainfall conditions were observed in entire Maldives in the month of June. The cumulative deficit of rainfall over the last 12 months has increased to an amount around 700 mm in Northern and Central islands. Southern islands continues to show a much smaller rainfall deficit over the last year. The temperatures are predicted to be warmer than expected in the next three months and the rainfall below normal in the Southern islands.  

Image: Rainfall Anomaly in May 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed in the Northern islands and wet conditions in the southern islands.

Asia Analysis: Battling climate impacts in low-lying Maldives

Going carbon neutral and protecting marine environment are key to fighting climate change in the tiny island nation, says Nalaka Gunawardene.

‘Raise your voice, not the sea level’ is the theme for this year’s World Environment Day, which falls on 5 June. The theme resonates with the United Nations designating 2014 as the International Year of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) [1], to express solidarity with the world's 51 small island states, many of which are on the frontline of climate changeimpacts. [2]

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Above average rainfall was observed during the month of May in Central to Southern islands in Maldives. This rainfall condition diminished during the first two weeks of June. The drought in the Northern Islands persisted during the last month. The entire country shows a rainfall deficit during this year compared to what was observed during past eight years. Three is a 60% probability of El Nino conditions emerging starting from the Pacific Ocean in the next months. If it emerges then, greater tendency to drier than average is expected in the Northern and Central Islands until September. Models however are suggesting that rainfall from July to August shall be climatological while temperature shall be biased to warmer conditions In the Southern Islands and cooler than average in the Northern islands.  

Image: Rainfall Anomaly in May 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed in the Northern islands and wet conditions in the southern islands.

Haa Alif Dhidhoo hit by ‘Udha’ waves

By Ahmed Rilwan

Source: http://minivannews.com/environment/haa-alif-dhidhoo-hit-by-udha-waves-86757

Dhidhoo, the capital of Haa Alif atoll is being flooded by ‘Udha’ swell waves coming in from the eroded southern side of the island, the island council has said today.

Deputy President of the council Jauhari Ali today said the waves are coming from three eroding areas, one of which is populated densely – with the nearest houses just seven feet from reach of these swells.

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Dryer than average conditions were observed in all of Maldives during the month of April. Northern and Central Maldivian islands continue to show a cumulative rainfall deficit while Southern islands continue to receive slightly surplus rainfall when compared to monthly averages. Significant rainfall during April was observed only in the Southern islands in early April. ENSO conditions have changed from cooler than -neutral sea surfaces in the Eastern Tropical Pacific to warm-neutral indicating greater likelihood of El Nino in the coming months. Towards the end of April significant rainfall was observed across the Maldives and is expected to continue to the first two weeks of May.  

Image: Rainfall Anomaly in April 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed throughout the month

The Maldives is the extreme test case for climate change action

By Damian Carrington 

Like the azure ocean waters, the challenge of global warming is clear in the archipelago. But can the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's new report crystallise action?

Paradox in paradise: the Maldives economy runs on the natural beauty that development, climate change and other environmental problems threaten. Photograph: Sakis Papadopoulos

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Seas immediately around Maldives do not show a surface temperature anomaly more than 0.5oC from the seasonal average. While the Rainfall during March over the Northern islands is the highest in the last five last five years, there has been an overall drought when the last six months are considered. Such a drought pattern prevailed in the 6 month period of over the Central islands as well. However, the southern Islands continued to have a wetter than average rainfall over the last season. The predictions from weekly to seasonal scales do not show much departures from climatology.  

Image: Rainfall Anomaly in March 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades.

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

The rainfall over the Northern and Central Island since February 2013 has been up to 35% lower than normal. The rainfall over the Southern Islands were actually about 10-20% higher than normal. The major rainfall deficits commenced in September 2013. The cause of these deficits is not explained by the usual factors such as El Nino.  

Image: Sea Surface Temperature- 12 February 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

Dry conditions were observed in Maldives in January. Northern islands did not receive any rainfall during this month while some rainfall was observed in central and Southern islands.  

Image: Sea Surface Temperature- 12 February 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2014

 Download Full Report

Highlights

The highest recorded rainfall in the past five years for southern islands was observed in mid-December. This is the third high rainfall event observed this year in this region. Due to this a surplus rainfall was observed in southern Maldives in contrast to the rainfall deficit observed in northern and central islands. The sea surface temperature has become neutral around Maldives but in the rest of the Indian Ocean there is warming to South of the Equator.  

Image: Sea Surface Temperature- 04 December 2013