Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2014

HIGHLIGHTS

Above average rainfall was observed in southern islands of Maldives where up to 190 mm rainfall was observed at the end of November and this is the highest rainfall observed in this year in any part of the country. The rest of the country received below average rainfall during November. Very heavy rainfall is expected in the sea west of Maldives in the next few days. Most of ENSO prediction models indicate a weak El Nino condition during December to February.

Rainfall Anomaly over Maldives in November 2014. Areas in green received above average rainfall while areas in brown received below average rainfall.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

Rainfall in the southern islands shall decrease to 200 mm/month in November, December and January. In February the rainfall further decreases in the entire Maldives. The same amount of rainfall is received in March with lesser wind.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

During 14th - 16th December, light rainfall was only observed in northern-most and southern-most islands of Maldives. On the 17th, rainfall up to 10 mm was observed in central islands. An increase in rainfall was observed on 18th and 19th with observed rainfall reaching up to 50 mm throughout the country. Rainfall up to 140 mm was observed in the sea, east of Maldives and up to 120 mm in the sea, west of Maldives.

 Weekly Monitoring

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During November higher average monthly rainfall (up to 15 mm/day) was observed in southern islands of Maldives compared to that of northern and central islands which reached up to 10 mm. Comparing these averages with historical averages, the rainfall received by the southern islands was observed to be above average while it was below average in northern and southern islands. As a result the rainfall deficit in northern and southern islands has further increased. Southern islands received highest rainfall received this year at the end of November which was up to 190 mm.

 Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 18, 2014:

During November through early December the SST exceeded thresholds for weak Niño conditions, although only some of the atmospheric variables indicate an El Niño pattern. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the December-February season in progress, continuing through most or all of northern spring 2015.
(Text Courtesy- IRI)

Indian Ocean State December 13, 2014:

0.5 degrees C above average Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.

 Ocean State Monitoring



Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA models, rainfall up to 50 mm is expected during 21st- 26th December. In central islands this amount shall reach up to 75 mm. During this period extremely heavy rainfall (excess of 300 mm) is expected in the eastern sea of Maldives closer to Sri Lanka.


 Weekly Rainfall Forecast

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for December to February, the total 3 month Precipitation shall be near-normal tercile with a 40% probability. The 3 month average temperature has a 60- 70% likelihood of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

 Seasonal Prediction 


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