Friday, February 21, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2014

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Highlights

Dry conditions were observed in Maldives in January. Northern islands did not receive any rainfall during this month while some rainfall was observed in central and Southern islands.  





Image: Sea Surface Temperature- 12 February 2014









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

The average rainfall for the Southern islands is high in November and December and the average declines as one travels north. The winds over the Northern & Central islands are usually north-easterly (from North-East to South-West). For Southern islands higher wind speeds are expected for July and August, but stronger westerly winds are expected in September and October.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

No rainfall was observed in any part of Maldives during 11th – 16th February 2014.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During the month of January an average of 0- 10 mm of rainfall was observed in Southern islands and seas surrounding this region. No rainfall was observed in Northern islands of Maldives throughout January. Up to 20 mm of cumulative rainfall was observed in Central islands as well as Southern islands. Higher than average cumulative precipitation was observed in Southern islands where there still is a rainfall deficit in other parts of Maldives.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 18th – 23rd of February 2014.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for January to March 2014, rainfall shall have a 40-45% chance of being in the above-normal tercile for the Central Islands and near climatological conditions in Southern and Northern Islands while temperature this season shall have a 40- 50% probability of being in the above normal tercile in the Southern Islands and climatological in the Central Islands.

Pacific Seas State February 17, 2014



Although the NINO indices have not indicated it so far, Pacific Ocean has been showing a La Nina sea surface temperature pattern with major cold anomalies to the Eastern Pacific sea surfaces south of the equator only but strong warm anomalies in the Western Pacific tropical sea surfaces.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State February 17, 2014

Although there is modest departures of sea surfaces adjacent to Maldives, there are very strong warm anomalies to the South-East around Madagascar, cold anomalies in the Northern Bay of Bengal and warm anomalies towards the Chagos Islands.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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