Monday, January 13, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2014

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Highlights

The highest recorded rainfall in the past five years for southern islands was observed in mid-December. This is the third high rainfall event observed this year in this region. Due to this a surplus rainfall was observed in southern Maldives in contrast to the rainfall deficit observed in northern and central islands. The sea surface temperature has become neutral around Maldives but in the rest of the Indian Ocean there is warming to South of the Equator.  





Image: Sea Surface Temperature- 04 December 2013









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

The historical average rainfall for the Southern islands is high in November and December and the average declines as it moves North. The winds over the Northern & Central islands are usually north-easterly (from north-East to south-West). For Southern islands higher wind speeds are expected for July and August, but stronger westerly winds in September and October.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

On the 31st December 2013 light rainfall was observed in central islands of Maldives. For next five days no rainfall was observed in any part of Maldives.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During the month of December an average of 10- 20 mm of rainfall was observed in Southern islands and seas surrounding this region. Lesser average rainfall was observed during this month in central and northern islands. When compared with the rainfall of the previous five years, rainfall in northern and central islands has been low. Hence the cumulative deficit for this year is around 800 mm for these regions. In southern islands more than 200 mm of rainfall was observed in mid-December which is the highest observed rainfall during the past five years for this region. Due to this fact southern islands show a surplus cumulative average compared to the average of past eight years.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 7th – 12th of January 2014.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for January to March 2014, rainfall shall have a 40-45% chance of being in the above-normal tercile for the Central Islands and near climatological conditions in Southern and Northern Islands while temperature this season shall have a 40- 50% probability of being in the above normal tercile in the Southern Islands and climatological in the Central Islands.

Pacific Seas State December 19, 2014



During November through early-December the observed ENSO conditions remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into early 2014. During northern spring and summer, a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State December 09, 2013

Seas around Maldives show neutral SST anomaly but Southern tropical seas are warmer




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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