Thursday, August 21, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2014

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Highlights

Dry conditions persisted during the July in the entirety of Maldives. Lower rainfall than the previous month was observed across the country. But during the next week NOAA predicts heavy rainfall in Maldives and this prediction has been made with a high confidence. Sustained El Nino conditions are expected towards the end of this year. The sea surface temperature around the country has also risen to more than 10 C.  





Image: Rainfall anomaly in July 2014. Darker brown area show a total rainfall deficit up to 400 mm covering most of The Maldives. 









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

During August Northernmost as well as Southern islands receive rainfall up to 200 mm while other regions of Maldives receive rainfall up to 150 mm. During September and October Northern islands receive rainfall up to 100 mm and the rainfall increases towards Southern islands of the country which receive up to 250 mm of rainfall. Rainfall in the southern islands shall decrease down to 200 mm in November.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

High rainfall (up to 40 mm) rainfall was observed in Northern islands of Maldives on the 11th and 12th of August. Then on the13th only light rainfall was observed in central islands. During these 3 days Very heavy rainfall was observed in the sea south of Maldives. Only very little precipitation was observed on the 14th throughout the country. Both 15th and 16th were dry days.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Less rainfall compared to previous months were observed in entire Maldives during July. This observed amount is less than the historical average during this month. The cumulative deficits in the Northern and Central Maldives show that the rainfall has been 30% below what would be normal over the past 365 days.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Extremely heavy rainfall is expected in Central Maldives south of Male and nearby sea during 18th- 23rd August. The rest of the Maldives too shall receive high rainfall in that period.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for July to September 2014, rainfall shall tend towards near-climatological for Northern and Central Maldives and tend towards below climatology for Southern Maldives while the seasonal temperature this season shall tend towards the above normal tercile across the Maldives.

Pacific Seas State August 7, 2014



During June through July the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle or late portion of northern summer.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State August 17, 2014

More than 10 C above average sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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