Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2014

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Highlights

Dryer than average conditions were observed in all of Maldives during the month of April. Northern and Central Maldivian islands continue to show a cumulative rainfall deficit while Southern islands continue to receive slightly surplus rainfall when compared to monthly averages. Significant rainfall during April was observed only in the Southern islands in early April. ENSO conditions have changed from cooler than -neutral sea surfaces in the Eastern Tropical Pacific to warm-neutral indicating greater likelihood of El Nino in the coming months. Towards the end of April significant rainfall was observed across the Maldives and is expected to continue to the first two weeks of May.  





Image: Rainfall Anomaly in April 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed throughout the month









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

The average rainfall during June for the Northern islands is high and ranges from 200- 250 mm. This average goes further up towards the Northern side of Maldives. During May, July and August rainfall average goes up from 150 mm to 200 mm towards Southern side of Maldives. Wind is Westerly during this four month period.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

During 27th April to 2nd May 2014, the entire country received rainfall ranging up to 100 mm. During 27th only Southern islands received rainfall with seas from South-east to South-west of Maldives very heavy rain reaching up to 150 mm. The next day was relatively dry. Heavy rainfall was again recorded on the 29th for the entire country and thereafter the rainfall dwindled.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

April has been a dry month for Maldives where significant rainfall was only observed in Southern islands during late March to early April. Less than average rainfall was observed in Northern and Central islands. However Southern islands continue to receive surplus rainfall.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

During 5th to 10th May 2014, up to 40 mm of rainfall is predicted for Maldives. Seas to the eastern side of Maldives shall receive extremely high rainfall ranging from 40- 150 mm.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June 2014, rainfall shall remain climatological while temperature this season shall have a 40- 45% probability of being in the above normal tercile in the Southern Islands and climatological in the Central Islands.

Pacific Seas State April 17, 2014



During March through mid-April the observed ENSO conditions moved from cool-neutral to warm-neutral. All of the ENSO prediction models indicate a warming trend, with neutral ENSO during northern spring 2014 transitioning to El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State March 29, 2014

Neutral SST conditions are observed around Maldives. The Southern tropical Indian Ocean has a warm anomaly of greater than 0.5oC from the seasonal average.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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