Friday, October 24, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2014

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Highlights

Above average rainfall was observed in northern and southern islands of Maldives in September 2014. In central islands, below average rainfall was observed despite having up to 300 mm rainfall during the month. The rainfall deficit persists in the entire country even though around 300 mm of rainfall was observed in September and the first two weeks of October.  





Image: Rainfall anomaly continues to grow in Northern islands of Maldives. The same is observed throughout the country









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

During October Northern islands receive rainfall up to 100 mm and the rainfall increases towards Southern islands of the country which receive up to 250 mm of rainfall. Rainfall in the southern islands shall decrease down to 200 mm in November, December and January.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

From 11th to 15th October no rainfall was observed in Northern islands of Maldives. Then on the 16th up to 50 mm rainfall was observed in these islands. Central islands received up to 30 mm rainfall during 11th to 13th and thereafter until the 16th only slight rainfall was observed. However southern islands received high rainfall throughout these six days (11th- 16th). Heaviest rainfall was observed on the 15th. The sea towards south of Maldives also received very high amounts of precipitation during this period.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Less rainfall compared to August was observed in September 2014 in northern and central islands while a significant increase was observed in southern islands. Dry conditions were observed in mid-September in northern islands and towards the end of the month heavy rainfall was observed. Southern and central islands received close to 100 mm rainfall during September and it further increased at the end of the month. Rainfall deficit persists in the entire country.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

According to NOAA models, no heavy rainfall events are expected during 19th- 24th October.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for November to January precipitation and temperature is likely to be 45- 50% above normal for Central Islands while its climatological in Northern and Southern.

Pacific Seas State October 16, 2014



During September through early October the observed ENSO conditions retreated from those of a borderline El Niño to a warmish ENSO-neutral state. However, most of the ENSO prediction models continue to indicate development of weak El Niño conditions during the October-December season in progress, peaking at weak strength during winter 2014-15 and lasting through most of northern spring 2015.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State October 11, 2014

More than 0.50 C above average sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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