Friday, September 12, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2014

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Highlights

The northern and central islands of the Maldives garnered their highest monthly rainfall in August for 2014. Despite this the cumulative deficit of rainfall continues to grow and currently the amount of this deficit has grown past 500 mm. In southern islands the deficit has become more significant.  





Image: Rainfall anomaly in August 2014. This shows an above average rainfall in northern and central islands and a below average rainfall in the south.









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

During September and October Northern islands receive rainfall up to 100 mm and the rainfall increases towards Southern islands of the country which receive up to 250 mm of rainfall. Rainfall in the southern islands shall decrease down to 200 mm in November and December.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

On the 31st August and 1st of September no rainfall was observed in any part of Maldives. From 2nd onwards rainfall was observed in northern and central islands with rainfall reaching a maximum of 30 mm on the 2nd and decreasing gradually thereafter.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

The entire country received higher precipitation than previous three months during August 2014. In northern and central islands the amount of rainfall received in August is the highest this year. Despite this the total rainfall deficit in this region continues to increase. In southern islands a lower than expected rainfall contributed to an emerging rainfall deficit.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

According to NOAA models, no heavy rainfall events are expected during 10th- 15th September and during this period below average rainfall is expected in Maldives.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for September to November precipitation is likely to be 45- 50% above normal for Central Island while its climatological in Northern and Southern. Temperature shall also most likely be above average during this period for all Maldives.

Pacific Seas State September 4, 2014



During July through August the observed ENSO conditions were neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate warming to El Niño levels coming around early northern fall, peaking at weak strength during winter 2014-15 and lasting into the first few months of 2015.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State August 17, 2014

More than 1 degree Celsius above average sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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