Monday, June 23, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2014

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Highlights

Above average rainfall was observed during the month of May in Central to Southern islands in Maldives. This rainfall condition diminished during the first two weeks of June. The drought in the Northern Islands persisted during the last month. The entire country shows a rainfall deficit during this year compared to what was observed during past eight years. Three is a 60% probability of El Nino conditions emerging starting from the Pacific Ocean in the next months. If it emerges then, greater tendency to drier than average is expected in the Northern and Central Islands until September. Models however are suggesting that rainfall from July to August shall be climatological while temperature shall be biased to warmer conditions In the Southern Islands and cooler than average in the Northern islands.  





Image: Rainfall Anomaly in May 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed in the Northern islands and wet conditions in the southern islands.









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

During June to September, Northern islands in Maldives receive more rainfall than the islands in the south. Northern islands receive rainfall up to 250 mm while southern islands receive rainfall up to 150 mm. Wind is Westerly during this four month period.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

During 9th to 11th June 2014 rainfall was observed in Northern islands of the country. Thereafter on the 12th and 13th no rainfall was observed in the entire country but on the 13th very high rainfall (140 mm+) was observed in the sea towards south west of the country . By the 14th this high rainfall condition progressed towards the north resulting very high rainfall in sea west of the country and rainfall up to 20 mm in Southern and Central islands of The Maldives.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Relatively higher rainfall compared to previous 3 months was observed during May in Maldives particularly in Central to Southern islands. These islands received much higher rainfall, which is above than the average, during this month. During the first two weeks of June, the rainfall receded in the entire country.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 19th- 24th June 2014.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June 2014, rainfall shall remain climatological while temperature this season shall have a 40- 45% probability of being in the above normal tercile in the Southern Islands and climatological in the Central Islands.

Pacific Seas State June 5, 2014



During May through mid-June the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern hemisphere summer.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State June 14, 2014

Neutral SST conditions are observed around Maldives except in the South. The Southern tropical Indian Ocean has a warm anomaly of greater than 0.5oC from the seasonal average.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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