Friday, July 18, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2014

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Highlights

Lower than average rainfall conditions were observed in entire Maldives in the month of June. The cumulative deficit of rainfall over the last 12 months has increased to an amount around 700 mm in Northern and Central islands. Southern islands continues to show a much smaller rainfall deficit over the last year. The temperatures are predicted to be warmer than expected in the next three months and the rainfall below normal in the Southern islands.  





Image: Rainfall Anomaly in May 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed in the Northern islands and wet conditions in the southern islands.









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

During July and August Northernmost as well as Southern islands receive rainfall up to 200 mm while other regions of Maldives receive rainfall up to 150 mm. During September and October Northern islands receive rainfall up to 100 mm and the rainfall increases towards Southern islands of the country which receive up to 250 mm of rainfall.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

During 7th of July to 12th of July rainfall was only observed on the 8th and 9th. On the 8th Northern and Central islands received rainfall up to 30 mm and on the 9th the entire country received rainfall up to 60 mm. except these two days, no rainfall was observed during this 6 day period anywhere in Maldives.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Less than average rainfall was observed during June in the entire Maldives. As a result the deficit in rainfall compared to the average of 8 previous years has increased significantly. In Northern and Central islands this deficit has grown to around 700 mm. The Southern islands too continue to show a rainfall deficit.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 13th- 18th July 2014.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for July to September 2014, rainfall shall tend towards near-climatological for Northern and Central Maldives and tend towards below climatology for Southern Maldives while the seasonal temperature this season shall tend towards the above normal tercile across the Maldives.

Pacific Seas State June 5, 2014



During June through early-July the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State June 14, 2014

Warmer than average SST conditions are observed around Maldives particularly away from the Southern tip. Overall there is a warming tendency in the Central Indian Ocean.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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