Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The southern islands were quite wet during February and first 3 weeks of March. Northern islands did not receive any rainfall during this period while central islands received moderate rainfall. The seven-day forecasts suggest that there shall be no rainfall in the next few days in any island. There is an El Nino that is ongoing which may last at least a few more months. The most direct impact is the warmer seasonal temperatures.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

High rainfall compared to previous five Januaries was observed in January 2016 in southern and central islands. Southern and central islands received up to 100 and 120 mm rainfall in the final week of January 2016. February 2016 up to now has been dry compared to January and according to the IRI CFS models shall remain dry in the next few days as well. There shall be a continuation of El Nino conditions in March which shall contribute to the usual relatively dry weather during March for Central and particularly Northern Islands. The El Nino conditions and the warmer Indian Ocean conditions are leading to warmer conditions across the Maldives for the next 3 months.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Jan 2016. Northern most atolls received below average rainfall while southern most atolls received above average rainfall.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observed in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. In January 2016 rainfall was low throughout the country except for very few high rainfall events in the southern islands. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to have a drier tendency during February to April 2016 for the Central Islands and no clear tendencies for the Northern and Southern Islands. Temperature is predicted to be warmer than seasonal averages till April in all the islands with higher confidence. Such a dry and warm tendency is expected during El Nino in the Central islands . A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Dec 2015. The entire country received below average rainfall while northern most atolls received above average rainfall.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observe in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to be climatological during January to March 2016. A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months. In January, during El Nino conditions, the rainfall in southern islands is usually enhanced. But there is a slight drop in rainfall, in northern or central islands due to El Niño conditions.

Rainfall Deficit in southern Maldives. 

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Rainfall in the Maldives continued to follow an increasing trend in October 2015. Heavy rainfall was observed throughout the country during late October to early November period. Southern islands received extremely heavy rainfall which resulted in floods in many southern atolls. The deficit in rainfall is only seen in northern islands while central and southern islands have received above average rainfall in the past year. Rainfall in the next 3 months shall have an above average tendency in the Northern and Central regions. Temperatures shall be warmer than the seasonal average throughout the country.

Rainfall in Southern Maldives in the last 6 years with this year's rainfall as the solid black line. A significant increase in rainfall was observed during late October - early November 2015 which caused floods in many southern atolls.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

High rainfall during September throughout the country decreased the rainfall deficit. The rainfall deficit in the country has come down to less than 10% of expected average. An increasing trend in rainfall can be seen in the past couple of months. Extreme rainfall is expected throughout the country during the next couple of days. Seasonal rainfall prediction models predict a continuation of above average rainfall during the next 2 months. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives is unusually warm. The Indian Ocean Dipole continues to be active.

Rainfall in Central Maldives in the past 6 years. The black line shows the rainfall this year which shows  large spikes after August 2015. Rainfall observed in September 2015 is the highest in the last 6 years.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

The monthly average rainfall during August was about 200 mm in central islands and about 150 mm in southern islands. These amounts are the highest rainfall observed during this year. However, the rainfall in the northern islands once again below average rainfall in August. The high August rainfall in southern islands has compensated for the cumulative rainfall deficit. In the central islands the high rainfall has contributed to bring down the rainfall deficit by about 50%. During the next 3 months there is a high chance of having above average rainfall in central islands. But in the Southern islands below average rainfall is more likely in the next 3 months. This pattern predicted by climate models is consistent with historical data during El Nino events which is likely to prevail for the next 6 months.

Rainfall in the past 5 years in Central islands. Black line shows the rainfall in 2015 which gets very high in August and September

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI