Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observed in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. In January 2016 rainfall was low throughout the country except for very few high rainfall events in the southern islands. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to have a drier tendency during February to April 2016 for the Central Islands and no clear tendencies for the Northern and Southern Islands. Temperature is predicted to be warmer than seasonal averages till April in all the islands with higher confidence. Such a dry and warm tendency is expected during El Nino in the Central islands . A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Dec 2015. The entire country received below average rainfall while northern most atolls received above average rainfall.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January the rainfall in Southern islands of the Maldives usually ranges from 150- 200 mm while in central and southern islands it is 100- 150 mm and 50- 100 mm respectively. Thereafter in February rainfall usually decreases to 100- 150 mm in southern islands, 50- 100 mm in central islands and less than 50 in northern islands. In March, normally, similar a rainfall pattern continues in central and southern islands while rainfall in the northern islands increases to 50- 100 mm. During January to March strong south-westerly wind is usual in the entire country.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

On the 9th and 10th January 2016 up to 20 mm rainfall was observed in southern islands in the Maldives. Then on the 11th, up to 140 mm rainfall was observed near Huvadhu atoll and in the sea west of this atoll while up to 120 mm rainfall was observed in Gan. Rain decreased on the 12th in southern islands where only up to 80 mm rainfall was seen. On the same day there was heavy rainfall in southern and south eastern sea. Then from the 14th onward until 23rd there was no rainfall throughout the country.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In December 2015, below average rainfall was observed throughout the Maldives except in northern-most islands. In northern islands a peak in rainfall was observed in early December. This observed rainfall peak is the highest observed during 2015. Thereafter the rest of the month was relatively dry. Central islands received less rainfall compared to the previous month. Rainfall continues to follow the decreasing trend which was seen since September 2015. Southern islands too received very low amount of rainfall in December.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State January 21, 2016:

During mid-January 2015 the tropical Pacific SST was at a strong El Niño level, having peaked in November and December. All atmospheric variables strongly support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the January-March 2016 season in progress. The beginning of a gradual weakening of the SST anomaly is underway, with the event dissipating to neutral conditions by late spring or early summer 2016.

Indian Ocean Monitoring January 13, 2016: 

~0.5 C0 Warmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives as is typical for an El Nino.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, Up to 150 mm very heavy rainfall is expected in North & South Nilandhe and Mulak atolls during 24th- 29th January 2016. Kolhumadulu, Hadhdhunmathee, Ari, Felidhe and Vattaru atolls shall also receive heavy rainfall up to 100 mm during this period.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for February to April 2016, the rainfall shall be 40- 50% below normal. During an El Nino January- March is usually dry. The 3 month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months.