Thursday, January 14, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observe in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to be climatological during January to March 2016. A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months. In January, during El Nino conditions, the rainfall in southern islands is usually enhanced. But there is a slight drop in rainfall, in northern or central islands due to El Niño conditions.
Rainfall Deficit in southern Maldives. 



 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January the rainfall in Southern islands of the Maldives usually ranges from 150- 200 mm while in central and southern islands it is 100- 150 mm and 50- 100 mm respectively. Thereafter in February rainfall usually decreases to 100- 150 mm in southern islands, 50- 100 mm in central islands and less than 50 in northern islands. In March, normally, similar a rainfall pattern continues in central and southern islands while rainfall in the northern islands increases to 50- 100 mm. During January to March strong south-westerly wind is usual in the entire country.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

On the 10th November the entire country did not receive any significant amount of rainfall. Then on the 11th up to 80 mm rainfall was observed in central and southern islands while more than 100 mm rainfall was observed in the eastern sea. Rainfall gradually decreased on 12th and 13th and from the 14th until the 21st no rainfall was observed in the entire country. Up to 20 mm rainfall was observed in northern islands on 22nd and 23rd. Then on the 24th southern islands received up to 30 mm rainfall and up to 140 mm rainfall was observed further south in the Indian Ocean.



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In December 2015, below average rainfall was observed throughout the Maldives except in northern-most islands. In northern islands a peak in rainfall was observed in early December. This observed rainfall peak is the highest observed during 2015. Thereafter the rest of the month was relatively dry. Central islands received less rainfall compared to the previous month. Rainfall continues to follow the decreasing trend which was seen since September 2015. Southern islands too received very low amount of rainfall in December.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 19, 2015:

During late October through mid-November 2015 the tropical Pacific SST was at a strong El Niño level. All atmospheric variables strongly support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific. The consensus of -prediction models indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the November-January 2015-16 season in progress. Some slight further strengthening is possible into the April, with the event slowly weakening thereafter.

Indian Ocean Monitoring November 20, 2015: 

~0.5 degrees Celcius Warmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives as is typical for an El Nino.




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, Up to 200 mm very heavy rainfall is expected in Male, Felidhoo, Malaku, Nilandhoo and Ari atolls during 6th- 11th January 2016. Kolhumadulu and Hadhdhunmathee atolls shall also receive heavy rainfall up to 75 mm during this period.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for January to March 2016, the rainfall shall be climatological. During an El Nino January- March is usually dry. Usually in January rainfall is enhanced by ~100 mm in southern islands during an El Ni during an El Nino. But in northern and central Island there usually is a slight drop in rainfall during an El Nino. The 3 month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months.



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