Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

The monthly average rainfall during August was about 200 mm in central islands and about 150 mm in southern islands. These amounts are the highest rainfall observed during this year. However, the rainfall in the northern islands once again below average rainfall in August. The high August rainfall in southern islands has compensated for the cumulative rainfall deficit. In the central islands the high rainfall has contributed to bring down the rainfall deficit by about 50%. During the next 3 months there is a high chance of having above average rainfall in central islands. But in the Southern islands below average rainfall is more likely in the next 3 months. This pattern predicted by climate models is consistent with historical data during El Nino events which is likely to prevail for the next 6 months.


Rainfall in the past 5 years in Central islands. Black line shows the rainfall in 2015 which gets very high in August and September

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, August, September and October the rainfall is about 150 mm in northern islands and about 200 mm in central and southern islands. In July, August, September and October the entire country usually do not receive strong wind. The wind direction is usually easterly.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

During 4th- 7th September no rainfall was observed in any part of the Maldives. On 8th and 9th light rainfall was observed in northern islands. Up to 30 mm rainfall was observed in north central islands on the 10th. Once again rainfall decreased during 11th- 13. Light rainfall was observed in northern and central islands during this period. Then on 14th and 15th the entire country except for northern-most atolls received rainfall up to 40 mm and no rainfall was observed on the 16th. Up to 30 mm rainfall was observed on the 17th in northern and central islands and the rainfall increased up to 100 mm on the 18th. Up to 140 mm rainfall was observed in the north western sea on the same day.



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In August 2015, central and southern islands received more rainfall than northern and north central islands. Rainfall received in southern and central islands were above average while other islands received below average rainfall. Central islands received significantly high rainfall in August. This amount is the highest rainfall received this year in this region. Southern islands too received high rainfall which helped to reduce the rainfall deficit.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 10, 2015:

During late August through early-September 2015 the SST was at a strong El Niño level. All atmospheric variables support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the August-October 2015 season in progress. Some further strengthening into fall is likely, with the event lasting into spring 2016.

Indian Ocean Monitoring September 9, 2015: 

~1 degree Celcius Warmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, heavy rainfall is not expected in the Maldives during 20- 25th September 2015.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for October to December, there is 80% probability for total 3 month precipitation shall be above average in central islands but in southern islands there shall be below average rainfall with a probability of 40%. The 3 month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood for north central and southern islands to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months.



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