Thursday, October 22, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

High rainfall during September throughout the country decreased the rainfall deficit. The rainfall deficit in the country has come down to less than 10% of expected average. An increasing trend in rainfall can be seen in the past couple of months. Extreme rainfall is expected throughout the country during the next couple of days. Seasonal rainfall prediction models predict a continuation of above average rainfall during the next 2 months. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives is unusually warm. The Indian Ocean Dipole continues to be active.


Rainfall in Central Maldives in the past 6 years. The black line shows the rainfall this year which shows  large spikes after August 2015. Rainfall observed in September 2015 is the highest in the last 6 years.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October Northern and central islands usually receive up to 200 mm rainfall while southern islands usually receive up to 250 mm. In November similar rainfall is typically observed throughout the country which shall be up to 200 mm but in December there is a variation in rainfall from north to south. Rainfall is typically up to 150 mm in Northern islands and increase towards the south with central islands usually receiving up to 200 mm and southern islands usually receiving up to 250 mm. Normally there are strong easterly winds throughout the country in October and in southern islands in November. In December there usually is south westerly wind.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

On the 4th October up to 20 mm rainfall was observed in central islands. Thereafter the entire country was mostly dry until the 7th. Northern and central islands received up to 40 mm rainfall on the 8th and on the 9th up to 50 mm rainfall was observed in northernmost islands. On the 10th Islands near Gan received heavy rainfall (up to 80 mm) while the rest of the country was relatively dry. Once again low rainfall was observed throughout the country on the 11th. Up to 30 mm rainfall was observed on 12th and 13th. Heavy rainfall up to 100 mm was observed in southern and central islands on the 14th while up to 140 mm rainfall was observed in the eastern sea. Thereafter until the 17th there was only light rainfall. Then on the 18th southernmost islands received up to 50 mm rainfall



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In September 2015 the entire country received above average rainfall. Felidhe, Vattaru and Mulak atolls received very high rainfall. Northern and central islands received highest observed rainfall this year during September and southern islands also received relatively high rainfall. The rainfall deficit throughout the country has reduced to less than 10% because of the heavy rain.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 15, 2015:

During late September through mid-October 2015 the tropical Pacific SST was at a strong El Niño level. All atmospheric variables strongly support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the October-December 2015 season in progress. Some slightly further strengthening is possible into later fall, with the event slowly weakening during spring 2016.

Indian Ocean Monitoring October 14, 2015: 

~2 degrees Celcius Warmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives. This is the warmest SST observed recently.




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, extremely heavy rainfall is expected in the southern region of the country during 20th - 25th October. Central and northern islands too shall receive heavy rainfall during this period.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for November 2015 to January 2016, there is 80% probability for total 3 month precipitation shall be above average in central. During an El Nino higher rainfall is usual during October- December Season in northern and central islands. But during January- March it is dry during an El Nino. The 3 month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months.



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