Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The southern islands were quite wet during February and first 3 weeks of March. Northern islands did not receive any rainfall during this period while central islands received moderate rainfall. The seven-day forecasts suggest that there shall be no rainfall in the next few days in any island. There is an El Nino that is ongoing which may last at least a few more months. The most direct impact is the warmer seasonal temperatures.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January the rainfall in Southern islands of the Maldives usually ranges from 150- 200 mm while in central and southern islands it is 100- 150 mm and 50- 100 mm respectively. Thereafter in February rainfall usually decreases to 100- 150 mm in southern islands, 50- 100 mm in central islands and less than 50 in northern islands. In March, normally, similar a rainfall pattern continues in central and southern islands while rainfall in the northern islands increases to 50- 100 mm. During January to March strong south-westerly wind is usual in the entire country.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

During 12th March, it rained up to 40 mm in the southern-most islands. Thereafter until the 26th, dry conditions were seen throughout the country. During this period the sea towards south, south east and south west of Maldives received high rainfall ranging from 40 to 140 mm/day.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In February 2016, the Maldives islands received average to above average rainfall. The south eastern sea received above average rainfall up to 12 mm/day. In northern islands dry conditions persist. Since December 2015, these islands received only slight amounts of rainfall but the deficit of rainfall is only about 100 mm from the average of past 12 years. Central islands received average rainfall during February but did not receive significant rainfall during the first 3 weeks of March. Despite this low rainfall, these islands have received more than expected cumulative rainfall in the past 12 months. Southern islands received significant rainfall in both February and March. These islands have received about 15% more rainfall than what is expected in the past 12 month.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 17, 2016:

During mid-March 2016 the tropical Pacific SST was weakening, but still at a strong El Niño level. All atmospheric variables continue to support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific, extending eastward. Most ENSO prediction models indicate continued weakening El Niño conditions over the coming several months, returning to neutral by late spring or early summer 2016, and a chance for La Niña development by fall.

Indian Ocean Monitoring March 16, 2016: 

~1 C0 Warmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives as is typical for an El Nino.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, rainfall is not expected in any atoll of the Maldives during 27th March – 1st April 2016.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to Jun 2016, the rainfall shall be climatological in the entire country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months for the entire country.