Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2025

              

HIGHLIGHTS

During 2 – 7 January, the southern regions are expected receive moderate rainfall (20-40 mm), while the other regions are expected to receive less. On 8 January, rainfall over the northern and central regions is expected to intensify significantly, with daily totals reaching up to 130 mm. During 16 – 30 December, the highest daily rainfall was in the southern regions on 19 December with a peak of 100 mm.  Sea surface temperature (SST) around the Maldives and the Arabian Sea remain normal. As of mid-December, Pacific Ocean is in a La Niña state. Winds are mainly coming from the northwest across the country. 

Monitored: In December, the central and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall and the remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of November. 

Predictions:  La Niña is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO neutral most likely in January-march 2026 (68% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology: Historical Average of Climate

In January, northern islands typically receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
16th December	0 mm	0 mm	5 mm
17th December	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
18th December	30 mm	80 mm	0 mm
19th December	5 mm	5 mm	100 mm
20th December	5 mm	5 mm	10 mm
21st December	10 mm	80 mm	10 mm
22nd December	0 mm	10 mm	0 mm
23rd December	0 mm	10 mm	5 mm
24th December	0 mm	5 mm	5 mm
25th December	30 mm	60 mm	0 mm
26th December	0 mm	0 mm	30 mm
27th December	0 mm	0 mm	10 mm
28th December	0 mm	20 mm	0 mm
29th December	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
30th December	0 mm	5 mm	40 mm

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In December, the central and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while northern islands received up to 10 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	31.00C	32.00C	32.00C
T Min	25.00C	25.00C	24.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 Dec Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  150 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands: 70 mm rainfall 

21-31 Dec, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 0 mm rainfall 

                                                        Central Islands:  40 mm rainfall 

                                                        Southern Islands:70 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 19, 2025:

As of mid-December 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in a La Niña state. The CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast places the probability of La Niña at 56% for Jan-Mar 2026 onwards. From January-March 2026 onward, conditions the forecasts begin shifting towards ENSO-neutral, which is forecast to become the dominant category. Neutral probabilities rise to 64% at the start of the year and remain the leading state through the forecast period ending in Aug-Oct 2026. El Niño probabilities stay very low, below 10% through Mar-May 2026, but gradually increase thereafter, reaching 14% in April-June, 26% in May-Jul, 35% in Jun-Aug, and 38% by Jul-Sep 2026. (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 9  - 15 December, 2025: 

Near-neutral SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
2nd January	0 mm	0 mm	40 mm
3rd January	0 mm	0 mm	20 mm
4th January	0 mm	0 mm	10 mm
5th January	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
6th January	0 mm	10 mm	10 mm
7th January	70 mm	10 mm	0 mm
8th January	130 mm	130 mm	40 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the northern and southern islands; by 45% in the central islands between 10^th- 23^rd January.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts

Below-normal precipitation tercile 401% probable in southern islands; 45% probable in central islands; near-normal precipitation tercile is probable in northern islands of Maldives from January-February-March 2026 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1, 2, 3 respectively in the next two weeks (1 – 15 January 2026). MJO in phase 1, 2 & 3 will enhance the rainfall over the Maldives from 1^st- 15^th January.