Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2025

             

HIGHLIGHTS

During 19^th – 21^st December, northern and central islands are expected to receive very heavy rainfall (130 – 200 mm). Despite the influence of Cyclone Ditwah, Maldives did not experience heavy rainfall during 26^th – 29^th November. Highest daily rainfall during this period was in the central islands on 25^th November (100 mm).  Sea surface temperature (SST) around northern and central islands remain warmer than usual. Winds are mainly coming from the northwest across the country. 

Monitored: In November, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall and the remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of November. 

Predictions:  La Niña is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-march 2026 (68% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology: Historical Average of Climate

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually, in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm, and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
16th November	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
17th November	10 mm	0 mm	3 mm
18th November	10 mm	5 mm	10 mm
19th November	5 mm	5 mm	10 mm
20th November	0 mm	5 mm	5 mm
21st November	0 mm	0 mm	10 mm
22nd November	5 mm	10 mm	20 mm
23rd November	20 mm	20 mm	0 mm
24th November	30 mm	60 mm	0 mm
25th November	10 mm	100 mm	20 mm
26th November	20 mm	40 mm	30 mm
27th November	20 mm	40 mm	5 mm
28th November	0 mm	60 mm	10 mm
29th November	10 mm	40 mm	5 mm
30th November	30 mm	30 mm	0 mm

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In November, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while northern and southern islands received up to 5 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	29.10C	32.00C	32.00C
T Min	24.30C	24.00C	25.60C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

21-30 Nov, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                        Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                        Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

1-10 Oct, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 200 mm rainfall 

                                                      Central Islands:  200 mm rainfall 

                                                      Southern Islands: 250 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 19, 2025:

As of mid-November 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in a La Niña state. The IRI ENSO plume forecast places the probability of La Niña at 67% for November-January, easing to 53% for December-February 2025/26. From January-March onward, conditions begin shifting towards ENSO-neutral, which becomes the dominant outlook. Neutral probabilities rise to 63% at the start of the year and remain the leading state through the forecast period ending in July-September 2026. El Niño probabilities stay very low-below 10% through March-May 2026, but gradually increase thereafter, reaching 16% in April-June. (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 18 November - 24 November, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the northern and central islands; while near-neutral SST was observed around the southern islands of Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
16th December	0 mm	40 mm	20 mm
17th December	0 mm	10 mm	10 mm
18th December	10 mm	10 mm	40 mm
19th December	40 mm	70 mm	40 mm
20th December	130 mm	130 mm	40 mm
21st December	200 mm	20 mm	0 mm
22nd December	0 mm	70 mm	0 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 50% in the northern and southern islands; by 45% in the central islands between 20^th December- 2^nd January.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile 50% probable in northern and southern islands; 40% probable in central islands of Maldives from January-February-March 2026 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 7, 8 respectively in the next two weeks (16 – 30 December 2025). MJO in phase 7 & 8 will suppress the rainfall over the Maldives from 16^th - 30^th December.