Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2025

            

HIGHLIGHTS

During 4^th-10^th November, rainfall is expected to decrease in the northern and central islands, while the southern islands are likely to continue receiving heavy rainfall, with daily totals reaching up to 70 mm. During the last two weeks of October, Maldives experienced heavy rainfall, with daily rainfall of northern and central islands reaching up to 50 mm. Sea surface temperature (SST) around Maldives remain warmer than usual. Winds are mainly coming from the northwest and west across the country. 

Monitored: In October, the northern, central and southern islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Northern and Central islands while Westerly winds prevailed for the Southern islands of Maldives during the month of August. 

Predictions: La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology: Historical Average of Climate

In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. The wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
18th October	0 mm	0 mm	5 mm
19th October	5 mm	10 mm	30 mm
20th October	10 mm	50 mm	40 mm
21st October	30 mm	30 mm	30 mm
22nd October	30 mm	40 mm	0 mm
23rd October	20 mm	10 mm	0 mm
24th October	5 mm	0 mm	0 mm
25th October	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
26th October	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
27th October	0 mm	0 mm	10 mm
28th October	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
29th October	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
30th October	0 mm	10 mm	5 mm
31st October	0 mm	20 mm	0 mm
1st November	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In October, the northern, central and southern islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	33.00C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	24.20C	25.00C	25.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 Oct, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                      Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                      Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

11-20 Oct, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 200 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  200 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands: 250 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 20, 2025:

As of mid-October 2025, the equatorial Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state. ENSO, or the El Niño – Southern Oscillation, describes periodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of Pacific Ocean waters that influence global weather patterns. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a moderate probability (65%) of La Niña conditions developing during October-December 2025. These La Niña conditions are expected to persist through the boreal winter of 2025/2026 (53%). However, beginning in January-March, ENSO-neutral conditions are forecasted to return with probabilities of 57%. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 26 August - 1 September, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives. The Indian Ocean is warmer than usual. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a weak negative phase, which may bring slightly drier conditions to the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
4th November	0 mm	0 mm	0 mm
5th November	0 mm	0 mm	20 mm
6th November	0 mm	0 mm	40 mm
7th November	10 mm	0 mm	20 mm
8th November	0 mm	0 mm	40 mm
9th November	0 mm	0 mm	40 mm
10th November	0 mm	0 mm	70 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 60% in the northern islands; by 45% in the central islands; by 40% in the southern islands between 1^st - 14^th November.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal precipitation tercile is 45% probable in the northern islands; below-normal precipitation tercile 50% probable in central and southern islands of Maldives from November-December-January 2026 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 5, 6 respectively in the next two weeks (6 – 20 November 2025). MJO in phase 5 & 6 will suppress the rainfall over the Maldives from 6^th - 16^th November.