Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – September 2025

           

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of September, the northern islands experienced a peak daily rainfall of around 60 mm on 25th September, while the remaining islands received comparatively lower amounts. In the coming week, the northern islands are expected to record another peak in daily rainfall, reaching up to 70 mm. The Indian Ocean SST remains warmer, while in contrast, La Niña conditions are now developing in the Pacific Ocean.

Monitored: In September, the northern and southern islands received up to 5 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Northern and Central islands while Westerly winds prevailed for the Southern islands of Maldives during the month of August.  

Predictions: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71% chance of La Niña during October - December 2025. Thereafter, La Niña is favored but chances decrease to 54% in December 2025 - February 2026.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology: Historical Average of Climate

In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
14th September	TR	TR	5 mm
15th September	TR	TR	10 mm
16th September	TR	TR	TR
17th September	10 mm	TR	TR
18th September	TR	TR	-
19th September	TR	TR	-
20th September	TR	-	5 mm
21st September	TR	TR	-
22nd September	-	TR	TR
23rd September	TR	5 mm	TR
24th September	TR	10 mm	10 mm
25th September	60 mm	5 mm	TR
26th September	40 mm	5 mm	5 mm
27th September	TR	TR	TR
28th September	TR	TR	-

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In September, the northern and southern islands received up to 5 mm of rainfall, and the central islands received up to 3 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.00C	32.80C	31.80C
T Min	25.00C	26.10C	24.70C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 Sept, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands: 70 mm rainfall 

11-20 Sept, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                         Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                         Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 19, 2025:

As of mid-September 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions continue across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, there is an increasing likelihood of La Niña during September-November (SON) with a moderate probability of 56%. These La Niña conditions are expected to persist through the boreal winter of 2025/2026 (December-January). In contrast, sea surface temperature (SST) is slightly warmer than the average levels (0.5 °C), which is not typical for a developing La Niña phase.  (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 28 August - 1 September, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
9th October	70 mm	40 mm	40 mm
10th October	70 mm	40 mm	20 mm
11th October	70 mm	40 mm	70 mm
12th October	40 mm	40 mm	40 mm
13th October	40 mm	40 mm	40 mm
14th October	20 mm	70 mm	40 mm
15th October	20 mm	70 mm	40 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 45% in the northern islands; below-normal tercile by 45% and above-normal tercile by 50% in the central islands; above-normal tercile by 60% in the southern islands between 11^th - 24^th October.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 45% probable in the northern islands; 60% probable in central and southern islands of Maldives from October-November-December 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1,2 respectively in the next two weeks (7 – 21 October 2025). MJO in phase 1 and 2 will enhance the rainfall over the Maldives from 7^th- 21^st October.