Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2024

  

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In November, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for the central and southern Maldives during the month of November.    

Predictions: La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024-January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January, northern islands receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
17th December	50 mm	100 mm	TR
18th December	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
19th December	30 mm	5 mm	10 mm
20th December	80 mm	80 mm	40 mm
21st December	30 mm	50 mm	20 mm
22nd December	TR	5 mm	TR
23rd December	-	TR	30 mm
24th December	-	TR	10 mm
25th December	-	20 mm	20 mm
26th December	-	TR	TR
27th December	-	TR	20 mm
28th December	TR	TR	TR
29th December	5 mm	10 mm	-
30th December	5 mm	10 mm	-
31st December	20 mm	50 mm	-

        TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In November, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall, northern and southern islands received up to 10 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.70C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	23.90C	24.50C	23.40C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 December, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 160 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Central Islands:  160 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Southern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

 21-30 December, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 19, 2024:

As of mid-December 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific, and both oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain in an ENSO-neutral state.  The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecasts slightly higher chances for ENSO-neutral conditions for Dec-Feb, 2025, with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions from Jan-Mar, 2025 to Jul-Sep 2025. For Aug-Oct 2025, no specific ENSO category emerges as favored. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through the boreal winter, spring and summer of the 2025. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 3 - 9 December, 2024: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the northern and central islands, and near-neutral SST was observed around the southern islands of Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
03rd January	10 mm	130 mm	TR
04th January	40 mm	40 mm	10 mm
05th January	130 mm	20 mm	TR
06th January	70 mm	20 mm	20 mm
07th January	70 mm	20 mm	20 mm
08th January	20 mm	10 mm	TR

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 50% for the northern islands, by 60% for the central islands and by 40% for the southern islands between 4th -17th January.       

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 45% probable in the northern and central islands; and below-normal tercile is 50% probable in the southern islands from January-February-March 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of above-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 8 and 1 respectively in the next two weeks (1 – 15 January 2024). MJO in phase 8 usually suppress the rainfall and phase 1 slightly enhance the rainfall over the Maldives.