Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2024

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In October, the northern and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of October.   

Predictions: La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually, in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm, and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
16th November	10 mm	20 mm	5 mm
17th November	20 mm	60 mm	80 mm
18th November	60 mm	80 mm	40 mm
19th November	40 mm	30 mm	10 mm
20th November	20 mm	10 mm	TR
21st November	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
22nd November	20 mm	20 mm	5 mm
23rd November	10 mm	20 mm	TR
24th November	10 mm	20 mm	5 mm
25th November	10 mm	30 mm	5 mm
26th November	5 mm	10 mm	TR
27th November	5 mm	20 mm	TR
28th November	TR	40 mm	30 mm
29th November	20 mm	5 mm	30 mm
30th November	30 mm	10 mm	10 mm

        TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In October, the northern and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall, central islands received up to 10 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.80C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	24.70C	24.20C	21.50C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 November, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Central Islands:  160 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Southern Islands: 120 mm rainfall 

 21-30 November, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 19, 2024:

As of mid-November 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific, and both oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain in an ENSO-neutral state.  The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecasts slightly higher chances for ENSO-neutral conditions for Nov-Dec, 2025.  Borderline La Niña conditions are forecasted during Dec-Feb just for one three-month season, with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions from Jan-Mar, 2025 to the end of forecasts period in Jul-Sep, 2025. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue during the boreal winter, spring and summer of the 2025. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 5 - 11 November, 2024: 

 0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
05th December	-	10 mm	10 mm
06th December	-	-	10 mm
07th December	-	-	10 mm
08th December	-	-	-
09th December	-	-	10 mm
10th December	-	-	10 mm
11th December	-	-	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 60% for the entire Maldives islands between 7^th -20^th December.     

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 50% probable in the northern islands; and near-neutral tercile probable in the central islands; and below-normal tercile is 50% probable in the southern islands from December-January-February 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 4 and 5 respectively in the next two weeks (1 – 15 December 2024). MJO in phase 5 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.