Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In September, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-westerly winds prevailed for the northern, central and southern Maldives during the month of September.  

Predictions: La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. The wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
17th October	-	-	TR
18th October	5 mm	-	-
19th October	5 mm	-	-
20th October	TR	-	-
21st October	TR	-	-
22nd October	5 mm	-	-
23rd October	10 mm	10 mm	-
24th October	10 mm	10 mm	-
25th October	40 mm	10 mm	-
26th October	80 mm	-	-
27th October	20 mm	-	-
28th October	30 mm	-	10 mm
29th October	TR	-	TR
30th October	TR	TR	-
31st October	TR	TR	-

        TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In September, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall, northern and southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.40C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	23.40C	25.0C	21.80C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 October, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                              Central Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

                                                              Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

 21-30 October, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                                Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 18, 2024:

As of mid-October 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecasts show 53% chances for ENSO-neutral conditions to continue during Oct-Dec. Borderline La Niña conditions are forecasted during Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb, 2025. ENSO-neutral conditions subsequently re-emerge as the most likely category and remain so during the first and second quarter of 2025 (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 1 - 7 October, 2024: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
08th November	-	10 mm	TR
09th November	-	40 mm	20 mm
10th November	-	40 mm	40 mm
11th November	-	40 mm	70 mm
12th November	TR	20 mm	20 mm
13th November	TR	20 mm	TR
14th November	TR	10 mm	40 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of near-neutral tercile for the northern islands; and above-normal tercile by 40% for the central and southern islands between 2^nd -15^th November.      

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 50% probable in the northern islands; and below-normal tercile is 45% probable in the central islands; and tercile is 60% probable in the southern islands from November-December-January 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 7 and 8 respectively in the next two weeks (1 – 15 November 2024). MJO in phase 8 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.