Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – September 2024

   

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In August, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-westerly winds prevailed for the northern and central Maldives during the month of August. 

Predictions: La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
16th September	10 mm	TR	TR
17th September	20 mm	10 mm	20 mm
18th September	10 mm	50 mm	50 mm
19th September	5 mm	5 mm	10 mm
20th September	TR	10 mm	20 mm
21st September	20 mm	30 mm	TR
22nd September	10 mm	30 mm	TR
23rd September	TR	TR	5 mm
24th September	10 mm	10 mm	20 mm
25th September	20 mm	30 mm	10 mm
26th September	40 mm	50 mm	10 mm
27th September	TR	20 mm	10 mm
28th September	5 mm	10 mm	5 mm
29th September	5 mm	40 mm	TR
30th September	40 mm	30 mm	TR

        TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In August, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall, northern islands received up to 8 mm of rainfall and southern islands received below 5 mm of rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.00C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	23.90C	23.70C	23.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 September, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Central Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

 21-30 September, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 19, 2024:

As of mid-September 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific, while oceanic and atmospheric indicators started to show signs of La Niña development, including a sustained strengthening of trade winds, and reduced convection over the central-eastern Pacific during last two months. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecasts equal chances for ENSO-neutral conditions and La Nina for Sep-Nov, 2024. Borderline La Niña conditions are forecasted during Oct-Dec (60% chances) that continue during the boreal winter. ENSO-neutral conditions subsequently re-emerge as the most likely during the boreal spring and remain so till the end of the forecast period (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 3 - 9 September, 2024: 

Between 0.5⁰C - 1⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
04th October	20 mm	TR	20 mm
05th October	20 mm	40 mm	20 mm
06th October	40 mm	20 mm	20 mm
07th October	40 mm	70 mm	20 mm
08th October	40 mm	70 mm	40 mm
09th October	40 mm	70 mm	40 mm
10th October	40 mm	70 mm	20 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 80% for the northern islands and the southern islands; and tercile by 50% for the central islands between 5^th -18^th October.    

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 40% probable in the northern islands; and below-normal tercile is 45% probable in the central islands; and tercile is 60% probable in the southern islands from October-November-December 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1 and 2 respectively in the next two weeks (1 – 15 October 2024). MJO in phase 2 usually enhance the rainfall over the Maldives.