Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – August 2024

  

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In July, the northern and central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-westerly winds prevailed for the northern and central Maldives during the month of July.

Predictions: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and it is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November 2024.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In September, islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
12th August	130 mm	40 mm	20 mm
13th August	130 mm	60 mm	40 mm
14th August	10 mm	20 mm	10 mm
15th August	40 mm	40 mm	10 mm
16th August	80 mm	30 mm	10 mm
17th August	60 mm	20 mm	TR
18th August	20 mm	20 mm	10 mm
19th August	10 mm	20 mm	10 mm
20th August	130 mm	50 mm	20 mm
21st August	10 mm	TR	TR
22nd August	TR	-	-
23rd August	TR	-	-
24th August	-	-	5 mm
25th August	-	TR	5 mm
26th August	-	-	TR

        TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In July, the northern and central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, while other islands received up to 5 mm.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.90C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	23.00C	23.50C	22.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                          Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                          Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

 11-20 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 250 mm rainfall 

                                                             Central Islands:  250 mm rainfall 

                                                             Southern Islands: 160 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State August 19, 2024:

As of mid-August 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific, and oceanic and atmospheric indicators also align with an ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecasts ENSO-neutral conditions for Aug-Oct, and Sep-Nov, 2024. Borderline La Niña conditions are forecasted during Oct-Dec, and Nov-Jan, but with very weakly elevated probabilities. ENSO-neutral conditions subsequently re-emerge as the most likely during the boreal winter and spring of 2025. (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 6 - 12 August, 2024: 

Between 0.5⁰C - 1⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
29th August	10 mm	TR	TR
30th August	20 mm	TR	10 mm
31st August	20 mm	40 mm	TR
1st September	TR	10 mm	40 mm
2nd September	10 mm	-	20 mm
3rd September	TR	-	20 mm
4th September	TR	-	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% for the northern islands and neutral tercile for the central and southern islands between 31^th August -13^th September.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 40% probable in the northern islands; and below-normal tercile is 50% probable in the southern islands and central islands from September-October-November 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 4 and 5 respectively in the next two weeks (27 August – 10 September 2024). MJO in phases 4 & 5 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.