Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – January 2025

   

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In December, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for Maldives during the month of December.      

Predictions: La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In February, northern islands receive average rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain.  Usually in March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it’s northwesterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
17th January	TR	30 mm	40 mm
18th January	TR	30 mm	50 mm
19th January	10 mm	130 mm	TR
20th January	TR	10 mm	10 mm
21st January	TR	5 mm	5 mm
22nd January	10 mm	20 mm	30 mm
23rd January	40 mm	20 mm	10 mm
24th January	30 mm	20 mm	TR
25th January	20 mm	40 mm	TR
26th January	10 mm	40 mm	50 mm
27th January	30 mm	80 mm	80 mm
28th January	40 mm	10 mm	TR
29th January	TR	-	-
30th January	TR	TR	-
31st January	10 mm	10 mm	-

        TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In December, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall, northern and southern islands received up to 10 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.50C	33.00C	31.50C
T Min	24.00C	22.60C	22.60C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 January, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 70 mm rainfall 

                                                               Central Islands:  200 mm rainfall 

                                                               Southern Islands: 70 mm rainfall 

 21-30 January, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                                Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State January 21, 2025:

As of mid-January 2025, La Niña conditions continue to prevail in the equatorial Pacific. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecasts slightly higher chances for La Niña for Jan-Mar, 2025, with equal chances for La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions for Feb-Apr, 2025. For Mar-May, 2025, onwards to the Jul-Sep, ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to persist through Jan-Mar, 2025 with 66% chances, and with 50% chances for Feb-Apr, 2025. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 14 - 20 January, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the central islands and near-neutral SST was observed around the northern and southern islands of Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
07th February	20 mm	20 mm	10 mm
08th February	10 mm	20 mm	TR
09th February	TR	40 mm	20 mm
10th February	TR	70 mm	10 mm
11th February	TR	40 mm	10 mm
12th February	TR	10 mm	TR
13th January	TR	10 mm	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 45% for the northern and southern islands, by 50% for the central islands between 8^th -21^st February.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 50% probable in the northern islands, and 45% probable in the central islands; and below-normal tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands from February-March-April 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of above-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 5 and 6 respectively in the next two weeks (1 – 15 February 2025). MJO in phase 5 and 6 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.