Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – September 2022

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, the central islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less.

Predictions: A La Niña is expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from October to December 2022 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
15th Sept	-	-	-
16th Sept	-	-	-
17th Sept	-	-	-
18th Sept	TR	-	TR
19th Sept	5 mm	TR	TR
20th Sept	10 mm	10 mm	TR
21st Sept	5 mm	10 mm	10 mm
22nd Sept	-	10 mm	5 mm
23rd Sept	-	5 mm	10 mm
24th Sept	TR	5 mm	40 mm
25th Sept	TR	10 mm	130 mm
26th Sept	TR	10 mm	30 mm
27th Sept	-	30 mm	30 mm
28th Sept	TR	30 mm	20 mm
29th Sept	30 mm	80 mm	10 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In September, the central islands received up to 15 mm; and the northern and the southern islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall.  

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10  Sept, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 160 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

11-21 Sept, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 10 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: < 5 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 19, 2022 :

In mid-September, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for September 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Dec-Feb 2023. The official CPC/IRI outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during boreal fall and moderate probability values during winter. ENSO-neutral becomes the most likely category in Jan-Mar 2023 onward. (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on September 28, 2022: 

SST was observed near-neutral around  the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
5th Oct	10 mm	20 mm	10 mm
6th Oct	10 mm	10 mm	20 mm
7th Oct	10 mm	10 mm	40 mm
8th Oct	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
9th Oct	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
10th Oct	20 mm	20 mm	10 mm
11th Oct	20 mm	20 mm	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 60% in the central islands; 45% in the southern; and 40% in the northern islands between 8^th - 21^st Sept.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 60% probable in the central islands; 50% probable in the southern islands; and 45% tercile is probable in the southern islands from Oct-Nov-Dec 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 4 & 5 and shall strengthen in the next two weeks (4 Oct – 18 Oct 2022). MJO in phases 4 & 5 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.