Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2022

  

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During September, the central islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the central and southern islands by 20%; and was in deficit by 8% in the northern islands.

Predictions: A La Niña is expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from October to December 2022 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. The wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
10th Oct	20 mm	30 mm	70 mm
11th Oct	30 mm	40 mm	60 mm
12th Oct	20 mm	60 mm	10 mm
13th Oct	60 mm	100 mm	5 mm
14th Oct	20 mm	20 mm	-
15th Oct	10 mm	40 mm	10 mm
16th Oct	20 mm	20 mm	-
17th Oct	60 mm	30 mm	-
18th Oct	60 mm	5 mm	-
19th Oct	10 mm	TR	5 mm
20th Oct	10 mm	TR	10 mm
21st Oct	20 mm	10 mm	30 mm
22nd Oct	10 mm	30 mm	TR
23rd Oct	20 mm	30 mm	TR
24th Oct	10 mm	10 mm	TR

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In September, the central islands received up to 15 mm; and the northern and the southern islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Deficit of 125 mm from an average of 1625 mm average

     Central islands: Excess of 250 mm from an average of 1250 mm average

                 Southern islands: Excess of 250 mm from an average of 1250 mm average
 

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10  Oct, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 60 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

11-21 Oct, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 150 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 200 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 200 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 19, 2022 :

In mid-October, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for October 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Jan-Mar 2023. The official CPC/IRI outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb, and Jan-Mar 2023.Based on objective ENSO forecasts, La Niña is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral during Feb-Apr 2023, which remains the most likely category thereafter. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on September 28, 2022: 

SST was observed near-neutral around  the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
29th Oct	20 mm	130 mm	40 mm
30th Oct	20 mm	40 mm	40 mm
31st Oct	10 mm	40 mm	70 mm
1st Nov	-	20 mm	70 mm
2nd Nov	-	70 mm	130 mm
3rd Nov	-	20 mm	40 mm
4th Nov	10 mm	40 mm	40 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 50% in the central islands; 45% in the southern; and 40% in the northern islands between 8^th - 21^st Sept.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 50% probable in the northern islands; and 45% probable in the central islands; and southern islands from Nov-Dec-Jan 2023 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 7 & 8 and shall strengthen in the next two weeks (2 Nov – 16 Nov 2022). MJO in phases 7 & 8 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.