Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – August 2022

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, the central islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the northern islands by 17%; and was in deficit by 30% in the central islands and by 7% in the southern islands.

Predictions: A La Niña is expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from September to November 2022 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In September, islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
17th Aug	-	-	-
18th Aug	TR	-	TR
19th Aug	-	-	5 mm
20th Aug	TR	TR	10 mm
21st Aug	20 mm	5 mm	5 mm
22nd Aug	30 mm	20 mm	5 mm
23rd Aug	30 mm	20 mm	5 mm
24th Aug	40 mm	40 mm	-
25th Aug	20 mm	50 mm	40 mm
26th Aug	20 mm	40 mm	40 mm
27th Aug	20 mm	10 mm	TR
28th Aug	40 mm	40 mm	10 mm
29th Aug	20 mm	30 mm	10 mm
30th Aug	40 mm	40 mm	TR
31st Aug	30 mm	30 mm	TR

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: : In August, the central islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 250 mm from an average of 1500 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 450 mm from an average of 1500 mm average

     Southern islands: Deficit of 100 mm from an average of 1500 mm average

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             11-20  August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                                          Central Islands: 60 mm rainfall 
                                                                           Southern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

21-31 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 160 mm rainfall 

                                                                        Central Islands: 160 mm rainfall 
                                                                        Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State August 19, 2022 :

In mid-August, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, strengthening slightly. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for August 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Dec-Feb 2023. The official CPC/IRI outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability during Sep-Nov 2022, continuing into boreal fall and winter. ENSO-neutral becomes the most likely category in Jan-Mar 2023 onward.  (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on August 24, 2022: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Norther and Central Islands of the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
3rd Sept	20 mm	20 mm	10 mm
4th Sept	20 mm	20 mm	40 mm
5th Sept	20 mm	40 mm	70 mm
6th Sept	20 mm	40 mm	40 mm
7th Sept	40 mm	70 mm	20 mm
8th Sept	20 mm	40 mm	10 mm
9th Sept	20 mm	20 mm	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 50% in the central islands and tercile by 45% in the northern and southern islands between 10^th - 23^th Sept.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 60% probable in the central islands and 45% probable in the northern islands; and near-normal tercile is probable in the southern islands from Sept-Oct-Nov 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 3 & 4 and shall strengthen in the next two weeks (5 Sept – 19 Sept 2022). MJO in phase 4 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.