Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During February, the southern islands received above normal rainfall while the central and northern islands received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 27% in the Northern islands; deficit by 15% in the Central islands and the southern islands are close to normal.

Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from April-June 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean surfaces by the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
6th March	-	-	5 mm
7th March	-	-	-
8th March	10 mm	20 mm	-
9th March	40 mm	60 mm	10 mm
10th March	40 mm	60 mm	60 mm
11th March	40 mm	60 mm	30 mm
12th March	10 mm	20mm	-
13th March	5 mm	10 mm	-
14th March	10 mm	40 mm	5 mm
15th March	20 mm	40 mm	20 mm
16th March	-	30 mm	40 mm
17th March	-	-	-
18th March	-	10 mm	5 mm
19th March	30 mm	30 mm	-
20th March	10 mm	5 mm	20 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In February, southern islands received up to 10 mm and central islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

           shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 400 mm from an average of 1450 mm average

                            Central islands: Deficit of 250 mm from an average of 1700 mm average

                            Southern islands: Excess of 200 mm from an average of 1750 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 Feb, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 
                                                                 Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 
                                                                 Southern Islands:  40 mm rainfall 
 

11-20 Feb, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Central Islands: 60 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 160 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March10, 2021 :

In early-Mar 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere spring 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on  March 10, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 23^rd Mar; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 24^th- 25^th Mar; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 26^thMar; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 27^th- 28^th Mar; and up to 70 mm of rainfall in the central islands; up to 40 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 29^th Mar. 

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 70% in the northern islands; tercile by 45% in central islands; and tercile by 40% in southern islands between 20^th- 26^thMar.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal temperature tercile is 40% probable in the northern islands; and below-normal temperature tercile is 45% probable in central islands and 50% probable in southern islands and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phase 2 and 3 and it is strong in the next two weeks (22 Mar - 5 Apr 2021). MJO in phase 2 usually enhances rainfall over the Maldives.