Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – February 2021

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, the entire islands received less rainfall. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 20% in the Northern islands by 33%.

Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from February-March 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean surfaces by the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
6th - 10th Feb	-	-	-
11th February	-	-	30mm
12th-13th Feb	-	-	-
14th February	-	-	10mm
15th February	-	-	20mm
16th February	-	60mm	100mm
17th -18th Feb	-	-	-
19th February	-	-	20mm
20th February	-	-	10mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In January, the entire islands received up to 10 mm; above-average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 300 mm from an average of 1450 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 400 mm from an average of 1675 mm average

     Southern islands: Excess of 125 mm from an average of 1775 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 Jan, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 
                                                                 Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 
                                                                 Southern Islands:  80 mm rainfall 
 
 11-20 Jan, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 150 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Central Islands: 60 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 10, 2021 :

In early-Feb 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere spring 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on  February 10, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 23^rd – 25^th Feb; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands, up to 20 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 26^thFeb; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 27^thFeb; up to 10 mm of rainfall in the northern and southern islands on 28^th Feb; and no rainfall on 29^th Feb. 

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the central and southern islands; and by 30% in northern islands between 27^thFeb - 26^thMar.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal temperature tercile is 60% probable in the central islands; 50% probable in northern islands and 40% probable in southern islands and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phase 6 and 7 and it is strong in the next two weeks (25 Feb - 11 Mar 2021). MJO in phase 6 usually suppresses rainfall over the Maldives.