Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – April 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, the southern islands received above normal rainfall while the central and northern islands received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 29% in the Northern islands; by 21% in the southern islands; and deficit by 4% in the Central islands.

Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from April-June 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean surfaces by the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In May, average rainfall is about 200 mm in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
11th - 12th April	-	-	-
13th April	10 mm	-	-
14th April	-	-	-
15th April	20 mm	10 mm	-
16th April	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
17th April	-	30 mm	-
18th April	20 mm	20mm	-
19th April	-	-	-
20th April	30 mm	-	-
21st April	-	5 mm	-
22nd April	5 mm	-	-
23rd – 25th April	-	-	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In March, southern islands received up to 20 mm; central islands received up to 15 mm and northern islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall.The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days, 

           
shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 425 mm from an average of 1450 mm average
                 Central islands: Deficit of 75 mm from an average of 1675 mm average
                 Southern islands: Excess of 375 mm from an average of 1800 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:

  1-10 Apr, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

 

 11-21 Apr, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  40 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands:  No rainfall 

PREDICTIONS

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State April 21, 2021 :

In late-Apr 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere spring 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on  April 21, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands on 28^th Apr; up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 29^th - 30^th Apr; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and central islands on 1^st May; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands on 2^nd May; up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 3^rd May; and up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 4^th May.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 50% in the central and southern islands; and tercile by 45% in northern islands between 24^th- 30^th April.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal temperature tercile is 50% probable in the northern islands; and normal temperature tercile is probable in central and southern islands from May- June- July 2021 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 8 and it is strong in the next week (27– 30 April 2021). MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 26^th – 30^th April and slightly suppress during 1^st – 5^th May over the Maldives.