Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – August 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During the last 365 days, Northern islands: Excess of 400 mm from 1300 mm cumulative precipitation average.

Central islands: Excess of 400 mm from 1700 mm cumulative precipitation average

Southern islands: Excess of 350 mm from 1800 mm cumulative precipitation average.

The sea surface temperature around the Maldives is 1⁰ C above average. 

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in southern, central and northern islands on 29^th August; up to 40 mm of rainfall in southern and northern island on 30^th August; up to 40 mm of rainfall in northern islands on 31^st August, up to 40 mm of rainfall in northern, central and southern islands during 1^st -2^nd September. 

 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
11th - 21st  August	No Rainfall.
22nd August	Up to 5 mm in northern islands.
23rd August	Up to 10 mm in northern and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
24th  August	Up to 5 mm in northern; up to 5 mm in central and up to 40 mm in southern islands
25th August	Up to 5 mm in northern; up to 10 mm in central and up to 30 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In July, northern islands received above average rainfall up to 20 mm; Faafu Atoll received up to 15 mm rainfall; and rest of the country up to 10 mm during this period

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State August 19, 2020 :

In mid-August 2020, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on July 29, 2020: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was enhance the rainfall significantly in phase 2 and phase 3 from 30th of August - 10th  of September 

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 50 mm of rain is expected for 26^th – 31^st August in the upper northern and central islands; up to 75 mm in southern island; and no extreme rainfall for coming six days.