Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – September 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored:  During September, the northern islands received above normal rainfall while the Southern half of Maldives received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 50% in the Northern islands by 33%. 

 The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 0.5 ⁰C  above normal. 

Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions from October anticipated, dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from October-December 2020. However, the seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean.

 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In September islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

 Fortnightly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
20th September	Up to 30 mm in the northern and up to 5 mm in central islands
21st September	Up to 20 mm in the southern and up to 10 mm in northern islands
22nd September	Up to 60 mm in the central; up to 40 mm in northern, up to 15 mm in southern islands.
23rd September	Up to 20 mm in the northern and central islands.
24th September	Up to 5 mm in the central islands
25th- 29th Sep	No Rainfall.
30th September	Up to 10 mm in the central islands.
1st October	Up to 10 mm in the central islands.
2nd October	Up to 10 mm in the southern islands.
3rd October	Up to 80 mm in the central and up to 10 mm in southern islands
4th October	Up to 10 mm in the central islands.

Monthly and SST Monitoring:

In September, northern and central islands received 10 mm and southern islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days, shows for:

Northern islands: Excess of 700 mm from an average of 1400 mm average.

Central islands: Excess of 400 mm from an average of 1600 mm.

Southern islands: Excess of 300 mm from an average of 1800 mm.

The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 0.5⁰ C above average. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 19, 2020:

In mid-Sep 2020, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.

Indian Ocean Monitoring September 30, 2020: 

0.5⁰ C  above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significantly suppressed in phase 2 and phase 3 from 21^st– 30^th of September. 

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS model up to 25 mm of rain is expected for 24^th – 29^th September in the entire country and no extreme rainfall for coming six days. IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the entire country on 7^th Oct; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands on 8^th Oct; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands on 9^th Oct; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the entire country on 10^th Oct; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands and up to 20 mm in central and southern islands on 11^th Oct; and up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands on 12^th Oct.