Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – July 2020

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored:  During July, the northern islands received above-normal rainfall while the central and southern islands of Maldives received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 45% in the Northern islands by 33%. 

The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1⁰ C above normal. 

Predictions: Between 27^th July – 1^st August, up to 70 mm rain is expected in the northern islands and no extreme rainfall for coming six days.

 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

 Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

  

Date	Rainfall
11th July 2020	Up to 40 mm in the northern and central islands.
12th July 2020	Up to 30 mm in the northern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands.
13th July 2020	Up to 40 mm in the central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
14th July 2020	No rainfall.
15th-16th July 2020	Up to 15 mm in the northern islands.
17th July 2020	Up to 60 mm in northern islands; up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
18th July 2020	Up to 40 mm in the northern and central islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
19th July 2020	Up to 60 mm in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in southern islands and up to 30 mm in central islands.
20th July 2020	Up to 20 mm in the northern islands.
21st July 2020	Up to 60 mm in the central islands; up to 40 mm in northern islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
22nd July 2020	Up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
23rd July 2020	Up to 100 mm in the northern islands; up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
24th July 2020	Up to 60 mm in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in central islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
25th July 2020	Up to 20 mm in the northern and southern islands and up to 15 mm in central islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In July, the northern islands received up to 20 mm; central islands received up to 15 mm and southern islands received up to 10 mm above-average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days, shows for:
            Central islands: Excess of 300 mm from an average of 1200 mm average.
            Southern islands: Excess of 350 mm from an average of 1350 mm average. 

            Northern islands: Excess of 500 mm from an average of 1100 mm average.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 29, 2020:

In late-July 2020, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold while the atmosphere continues to maintain either ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña patterns. The collection of the latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.  The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.

Indian Ocean Monitoring July 29, 2020: 

1⁰ C  above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significantly enhanced rainfall in during 9^th -18^th of July; and slightly enhanced during 19^th– 23^rd of July

Predictions

 Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

  

According to NOAA CFS model up to 70 mm of rain is expected for 27^th Jul – 1^st Aug in the northern islands; up to 50 mm in central islands; up to 25 mm in southern islands and no extreme rainfall for coming six days.