Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, the southern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall; central islands up to 60 mm; and northern islands up to 30 mm. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm.  

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on April 30th. On May 1st rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands. On the 2nd, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the central islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the northern parts of the country next week.       

In March, the southern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

MONITORING

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
19th March 2019	Up to 5 mm in northern islands.
20th-23rd March 2019	No Rainfall.
24th  March 2019	Up to 5 mm in southern islands.
25th March 2019	No Rainfall.
26th March 2019	Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
27th-28th March 2019	Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
29th March - 2nd April 2019	No Rainfall.
3rd April 2019	Up to 20 mm in northern islands.
4th April 2019	Up to 5 mm in northern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In March, the southern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall; central islands up to 60 mm; and northern islands up to 30 mm. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 19, 2018:

SSTs in the tropical Pacific increased within the weak El Niño category during February and early March, while subsurface waters became more strongly warmer than average. Patterns in the atmosphere now clearly suggest El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs through spring and summer, likely even lasting through 2019.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring April 3, 2019: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Mar 1-2; in Phase 3 from Mar 3-5; and in Phase 4 from Mar 6-12. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on April 30th. On May 1st rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands. On the 2nd, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the central islands. On the 3rd rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 4th rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the central islands and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands. On the 5th rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 6th rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the southern islands.