Sunday, March 3, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During February, northern and central islands received normal rainfall for the season; and southern islands received above than normal. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit of 400 mm in the last year compared to normal rainfall.  The Central Islands are experiencing normal rainfall, while the Southern Islands are having an excess of 380 mm.  The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 0.5 0C above normal.  

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands on March 4th, 5th and 6th. On the 7th and 8th daily rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the whole country next week.    

In February, the southern islands received up to 300 mm of total rainfall







 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.

MONITORING


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th-20th  February 2019 No Rainfall.
21st February 2019 Up to 5 mm in southern islands.
22nd  February 2019 Up to 50 mm in southern islands.
23rd February 2019 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
24th February 2019 Up to 30 mm in southern islands.
25th February 2019Up to 5 mm in central islands.
26th February  2019Up to 50 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
27th February  2019Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
28th February 2019No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In February, northern and central islands received normal rainfall  for the season; and southern islands received up to 50 mm rainfall above than normal. The southern islands received up to 300 mm of total rainfall; central islands up to 100 mm; and northern islands up to 90 mm. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 19, 2018:

SSTs in the tropical Pacific cooled to a borderline El Niño level in January and early February, while subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, some atmospheric patterns of El Niño that had been lacking, finally developed in late January and February. Collective forecasts of models show a return to weak El Niño-level SSTs into summer.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring February 20, 2019: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 8 from Feb 13-22; in Phase 1 from Feb 23-26; and in Phase 2 from Feb 27-28. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.





Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands on March 4th, 5th and 6th. On the 7th and 8th daily rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 9th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands.





1 comment:

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