Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, northern and central islands received rainfall slightly below than is normal for the season; and southern islands received above than normal. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit of 450 mm in the last year compared to normal rainfall.  The Central Islands also have an deficit of 50 mm, while the Southern Islands are having an excess of 350 mm. The sea surface temperature around southern Maldives was 0.5 ⁰C above normal.  

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the northern islands on February 4th. On the 5th and 6th daily rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 7th and 8th, daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the whole country next week.    

In January, the southern islands received up to 210 mm of total rainfall

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In February, northern islands receive average rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it’s northwesterly.

MONITORING

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
18th-19th  January 2019	Up to 50 mm in southern islands.
20th-27th January 2019	No Rainfall.
28th  January 2019	Up to 2 mm in northern islands.
29th January 2019	Up to 20 mm in central islands.
30th January 2019	Up to 10 mm in southern islands; and up to 5 mm in central islands.
31st January 2019	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In January, northern and central islands received rainfall slightly below than is normal for the season; and southern islands received up to 150 mm rainfall above than normal. The southern islands received up to 210 mm of total rainfall; and central islands up to 90 mm. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State January 19, 2018:

El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average, but less strongly so. However, key atmospheric variables continued to show mainly ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 82% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jan-Mar, and 66% during Mar-May
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring January 23, 2019: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around southern Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 on Jan 16; in Phase 3 from Jan 17-20; and in Phase 4 from Jan 21 -24. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the northern islands on February 4th. On the 5th and 6th daily rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 7th and  8th, daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. On the 9th, up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in northern and central islands. On the 10th, up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country.