Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2018

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During December, northern islands received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season; and central and southern islands received below than normal. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit in the last year compared to normal rainfall, that increased up to 450 mm during December.  The Central Islands have an excess of 100 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having an excess of 350 mm. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is normal.  
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands; up to 10 mm in southern islands on January 16th. On the 17th up to 70 mm of rainfall is expected in central islands and up to 40 mm in northern islands. On the 18th, up to 130 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands. 

In December, the northern and southern islands received up to 180 mm of total rainfall

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January, northern islands receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.

MONITORING

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th-17th  December 2018	Up to 15 mm in southern islands.
18th-22nd December 2018	No Rainfall.
23rd  December 2018	Up to 15 mm in northern islands and up to 5 mm in central islands.
24th-25th December  2018	Up to 50 mm in northern islands
26th December 2018	Up to 20 mm in northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands.
27th December 2018	No Rainfall.
28th December 2018	Up to 5 mm in central and southern islands.
29th December 2018	Up to 20 mm in southern islands and up to 15 mm in central islands.
30th December  2018	Up to 30 mm in central and southern islands.
31st December 2018	Up to 20 mm in central islands and up to 15 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In December, northern islands received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season; and central and southern islands received below than normal. The northern and southern islands received up to 180 mm of total rainfall; and central islands up to 90 mm. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 19, 2018:

El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the November average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 96% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and 70% during Mar-May 2019.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring January 9, 2019: 

Average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Dec 4-7; in Phase 3 from Dec 8-13; and in Phase 4 from Dec 14 -18. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the central islands; up to 10 mm in southern islands on January 16th. On the 17th up to 70 mm of rainfall is expected in central islands and up to 40 mm in northern islands. On the 18th, up to 130 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands. On the 19th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in central islands. On the 20th, up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in central and southern islands. On the 21st, up to 10 mm is expected in southern islands.