Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During April, northern parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 100 mm; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The northern islands received up to 300 mm of total rainfall; and central and southern islands up to 210 mm.  The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 20 mm in the southern and northern islands on May 27^th. On the 28^th, rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in central islands and up to 40 mm in the southern and northern islands. On the 29^th, rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in the central and northern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the central parts of the country next week.    

   

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, central and southern islands received rainfall up to 180 mm above the monthly average; and the northern islands up to 90 mm below the average. The northern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 450 mm.

MONITORING

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
19th April	Up to 20 mm in northern and central islands.
20th April	Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands and up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
21st April	Up to 50 mm in southern islands.
22nd – 28th   April	No Rainfall.
29th April	Up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
30th April	Up to 50 mm in the northern islands.
1st May	Up to 20 mm in northern islands.
2nd May	Up to 30 mm in the northern islands.
3rd May	Up to 20 mm in northern and central islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In April, southern and central islands received normal rainfall for the season; and northern islands received up to 100 mm rainfall above than normal. The northern islands received up to 300 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 210 mm

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 19, 2018:

SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during March and early April, while temperature anomalies of subsurface waters decreased somewhat but continued to be positive. Patterns in the atmosphere show weak El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring May 15, 2019: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Apr 21-23; in Phase 3 from Apr 24-27; and in Phase 4 from Apr 28-30. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall, up to 40 mm of is expected in the central islands and up to 20 mm in the southern and northern islands on May 27th. On the 28th, rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in central islands and up to 40 mm in the southern and northern islands. On the 29th, rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in the central and northern islands. On the 30th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On June 1dt rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the central and northern islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 2nd rainfall, up to 40 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the central islands. On the 3rd rainfall, up to 40 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands.