Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Extremely High Rainfall is forecasts for the North and Central Islands for the 1-6th October.
Monitored: 
During September, Southern Islands received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm; and Northern and Central islands received below normal rainfall. The cumulative rainfall for the last 365 days shows a 500 mm deficit for the Northern islands; 50 mm deficit for the Central islands; and an excess of 400 mm for the Southern Islands when compared to the past average.   The sea surface temperature around southern Maldives is below  0.5 0C normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands during October 3rd - 6th. On the 7th, up to 70 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. Long Range Weather prediction simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 300 mm for the northern and central during October 1st -6th. 
Southern islands received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm.






 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th  September 2018 Up to 50 mm in central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
20th September 2018 Up to 5 mm in the entire country.
21st  September 2018 Up to 50 mm in southern islands; and up to 20 mm in the central islands.
22nd September 2018 Up to 20 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands.
23rd September 2018 Up to 10 mm in northern islands; and up to 5 mm in central islands.
24th September 2018 Up to 20 mm in northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central islands.
25th September 2018 Up to 10 mm in central islands.
26th September 2018Up to 20 mm in central and southern islands.
27th September 2018 Up to 100 mm in southern islands; and up to 30 mm in central islands.
28th September 2018Up to 120 mm in southern islands; up to 50 mm in central; and up to 20 mm in the northern islands.
29th September 2018 Up to 20 mm in northern and central islands.
30th September 2018Up to 50 mm in the central islands and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In September, southern islands received rainfall more than 240 mm above the monthly average; and northern central islands up to 120 mm below the average. The southern islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall; central islands up to 300 mm; and northern islands up to 180 mm.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 19, 2018:

In mid-September 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with near to slightly above-average SST. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions, although weakly westerly low-level wind anomalies have developed. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring September 26, 2018: 

0.0C below average SST was observed around Southern Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 8 on 5 Sep; in Phase 1 from 9-10 Sep; and again, in Phase 8 from 23 -30 Sep. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 70 mm expected in northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands during October 3rd - 6th. On the 7th, up to 70 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 8th and 9th up to 40 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands.





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