Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2018

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, Central and Southern Islands received rainfall below than is normal for the season by up to 120 mm; and northern islands by up to 90 mm. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit in the last year compared to normal rainfall.  Also, the Central Islands have a slight lack of rainfall compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having a good year. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is above 0.5 ⁰C normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on September 3rd and 4th. On the 5th and 6th, up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern and central islands. On the 7th up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands on the 8th. Long Range Weather prediction simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country during September 1st -6th. 

Central and Southern islands received rainfall below than is normal for the season by up to 120 mm

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In September islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
17th  August 2018	Up to 50 mm in northern islands; and up to 20 mm in central islands.
18th August 2018	Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands.
19th  August 2018	Up to 10 mm in central and southern islands.
20th-22nd August 2018	No Rainfall.
23rd August 2018	Up to 5 mm in southern islands.
24th-25th August 2018	No Rainfall.
26th August 2018	Up to 10 mm in northern islands.
27th-28th August 2018	Up to 5 mm in northern islands
29th August 2018	Up to 10 mm in northern islands.
30th-31st August 2018	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In August, central and southern islands received rainfall up to 120 mm below the monthly average; and northern islands up to 90 mm. The northern islands received up to 300 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 180 mm. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State August 20, 2018:

In mid-August 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with near-average SST, slightly lower than a month ago. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions, although westerly low-level wind anomalies have recently developed. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring August 1, 2018: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 6 on 1 Aug; in Phase 7 from 2-4 Aug; and again, in Phase 6 from 5 -16 Aug. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country on September 3rd and 4th. On the 5thand 6th, up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern and central islands. On the 7th up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands.  Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands on the 8th. On the 9th, up to 40 mm is expected in central islands; up to 20 mm in northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.