Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, Southern, some Central and Northern Islands received an excess of rainfall than is normal for the season by up to 90 mm. However, the Northern Islands which had been having a rainfall deficit in the last year is not fully recovered from the below normal rainfall.  The Central Islands have a slight excess of rainfall compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having a good year. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is near normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country on August 7th and 8th. On the 9th, up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on the 10th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country during August 5th -10th. 
Central islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall in July.






 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In August islands in the northern half of the country, receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November, the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
22nd  July 2018 Up to 80 mm in central islands; up to 30 mm in northern islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
23rd July 2018 Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
24th  July 2018 Up to 20 mm in southern islands and up to 5 mm in northern and central islands.
25th July 2018 No Rainfall.
26th July 2018 Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
27th-30th July 2018 No Rainfall.
31st July 2018 Up to 20 mm in northern islands.
1st-5th August 2018No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In July, Maamakunudhoo, Ihavandhippolhu, Thiladhunmathee, Miladhunmadulu atolls and northern regions of Ari and Male atolls received rainfall up to 90 mm below the monthly average; and rest of the country received up to 90 mm above the average. The central islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall; northern and southern islands up to 300 mm. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 18, 2018:

In mid-July 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with slightly above average SST. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through northern summer season, with a 65% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 70% for winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch is in effect. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development by late summer or early fall, growing to weak or moderate strength during late fall and winter; forecasters are largely buying into this scenario now that the spring barrier is largely passed.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring August 1, 2018: 

Average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 4 from 8-11 July; in Phase 5 from 12-19 July and in Phase 6 from 20 -28 July. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country on August 7th and 8th. On the 9th, up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on the 10th. On the 12th up to 20 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands. On the 13th, up to 40 mm is expected in northern and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands. On the 14th, up to 40 mm is expected in southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands.





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