Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During June, Southern, Central and some Northern Islands received an excess of rainfall than is normal for the season by up to 120 mm. However, the Northern Islands which had been having a rainfall deficit in the last year is not fully recovered from the below normal rainfall.  The Central Islands have a 100 mm of deficit of rainfall while the Southern Islands are having a good year.   The sea surface temperature around Maldives is near normal with seas around Southern Islands seeing an anomaly of 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of daily rain is expected in northern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on July 11th. Up to 40 mm of daily rainfall is expected in the southern islands on the 15th and 16th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the northern islands during July 9th -14th. 
Central islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall in June. 




 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
20th  June 2018 Up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands.
21st-22nd June 2018 No Rainfall.
23rd  June 2018 Up to 5 mm in northern and central islands.
24th June 2018 Up to 20 mm in central and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
25th June 2018 Up to 20 mm in northern and up to 5 mm in central islands.
26th  June 2018 Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands.
27th June 2018 Up to 10 mm in northern and central islands.
28th June 2018Up to 5 mm in central islands.
29th June 2018 No Rainfall.
30th June 2018Up to 5 mm in northern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In June, central and southern islands including Faadhippolhu  atoll received rainfall more than 120 mm above the monthly average; and rest of the northern islands up to 90 mm below the average. The central islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall; northern islands up to 300 mm; and southern islands up to 180 mm. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 19, 2018:

In mid-June 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, as did all key atmospheric variables. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through northern summer season, with a 50% chance of El Niño development after September rising to 65% during winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch has been issued. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development during late summer, growing to possibly moderate strength during fall and winter.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring July 4, 2018: 

Neutral to 0.5 0C above neutral SST Anomalies was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from 17-22 June and in Phase 3 from 23-30 June. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 40 mm of daily rain is expected in northern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on July 11th. Up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country on the 12h. On the 13thh and 14th up to 20 mm rainfall is expected in the northern and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the central islands. Up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands on the 15th. On the 16th up to 40 mm rainfall is expected in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands.





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